A 'Trump put' for oil? Indian refiners think so
Local inventory, deals with non-Gulf suppliers add strength; cos bet on POTUS to prevent shocks Live Events as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Addas
Local inventory, deals with non-Gulf suppliers add strength; cos bet on POTUS to prevent shocks Live Events as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Addas a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now! (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel New Delhi: Indian refiners are betting that US President Donald Trump's recent pattern of offsetting oil supply disruptions by opening alternative supply routes will prevent a full-blown supply crunch or a sustained price spike despite the renewed conflict in West Asia.The resumption of US-Iran hostilities pushed Brent crude to $84 a barrel on Monday from last week's low of $72.
Prices have since stabilised around that level, even as attacks have continued and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted.Refining executives do not expect any immediate shortage of crude. Their confidence stems from stronger domestic inventory levels, contracted supplies from non-Gulf producers and greater availability of Russian crude following refinery outages caused by Ukrainian attacks.Another key reason is their belief that Trump will act to ease global supplies if the market begins to fear a shortage, as he has done in the recent past. "If one route closes, he would open another," said an executive, referring to Trump's decision to waive sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil in recent months after the conflict disrupted Gulf supplies and pushed prices above $100 a barrel.
Trump will allow Russian oil to flow freely into global markets until shipping through the Strait of Hormuz becomes easier, he said."Trump would not want a price spike ahead of the US midterm elections," another executive said. If prices begin to spiral, he could pause military action, declare that the operation has achieved its objectives or signal progress towards a more durable agreement with Iran, the executive said. "Either by easing sanctions to boost physical supplies or by signalling de-escalation, he would try to calm the market."Refiners are, however, closely watching China, whose subdued crude demand has helped keep supplies comfortable for India and others and limited the price rally in recent months.China's oil imports fell for a fourth straight month in June, with crude arrivals 35-40% below the 2025 average.
China lifted fuel export restrictions in early July following the US-Iran interim agreement in June, a move expected to support higher refinery runs and crude imports.Executives said a rebound in Chinese buying in the coming weeks could tighten the global crude market and put upward pressure on prices.
The BriefWire