Will Elon Musk Merge SpaceX And Tesla? Betting Markets Think It’s Increasingly Possible
Will Elon Musk Merge SpaceX And Tesla? Betting Markets Think It’s Increasingly Possible Published By, Last Updated: May 29, 2026, 21:31 IST Analysts and prediction
Will Elon Musk Merge SpaceX And Tesla? Betting Markets Think It’s Increasingly Possible Published By, Last Updated: May 29, 2026, 21:31 IST Analysts and prediction markets see rising odds that Tesla and SpaceX will merge by 2027, as Elon Musk nears a SpaceX IPO and potential trillionaire status. As SpaceX moves closer to a blockbuster public listing, speculation is mounting over a possibility that could reshape the technology industry — a future merger between Elon Musk’s rocket company and electric vehicle giant Tesla. The idea, once largely confined to investor forums, has gained traction after reports emerged that Musk had discussed combining the two companies. According to CNBC, a Tesla employee said the possibility of a merger had been openly discussed within the company. The speculation has also caught the attention of Wall Street analysts and prediction markets. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives recently estimated an 80 per cent probability that Tesla and SpaceX will eventually merge.
In a note cited by Forbes, Ives said the “groundwork is already in place" for the two businesses to become a single organisation and predicted that a deal could happen during the first half of 2027. Betting platforms are also assigning significant odds to such a move. Prediction market Kalshi currently places the chances of a Tesla-SpaceX merger before May 1, 2027, at around 52 per cent. The odds were even higher earlier this month, briefly touching nearly 77 per cent before SpaceX filed its IPO paperwork. Rival platform Polymarket estimates a 32 per cent chance that the merger could happen before the end of 2026. The growing speculation comes as Musk’s business empire reaches unprecedented scale. Following SpaceX’s planned public offering, Musk is widely expected to become the world’s first trillionaire. According to Forbes estimates, his nearly 40 per cent stake in SpaceX could be worth about $600 billion, potentially pushing his overall net worth above $1.4 trillion.
If SpaceX achieves its targeted valuation of at least $1.8 trillion, Musk would also become the first chief executive to simultaneously lead two companies valued at more than $1 trillion. Tesla is currently valued at over $1.6 trillion. Supporters of a potential merger point out that Tesla and SpaceX already share close operational and financial ties. Over the years, the companies have shared board members, including Musk himself and venture capitalist Ira Ehrenpreis. SpaceX has also purchased Tesla’s Megapack energy storage systems worth nearly $700 million to help power artificial intelligence infrastructure linked to Musk’s broader business ecosystem. The relationship deepened further after xAI’s merger with SpaceX, with Tesla’s investments in the artificial intelligence company effectively becoming part of SpaceX’s holdings. The two companies have also collaborated on technology development, with Tesla supplying solar equipment and vehicle components to SpaceX while drawing on SpaceX engineering expertise for projects such as the Cybertruck.
Despite the growing speculation, Musk has not publicly commented on whether a merger is under consideration. For now, the idea remains purely speculative. But with analysts assigning high probabilities and betting markets increasingly pricing in the possibility, investors are closely watching whether Musk’s sprawling business empire could eventually be brought under a single corporate roof. News18 Newsletter Handpicked stories, in your inbox A newsletter with the best of our journalism submit Location: United States of America (USA) First Published: May 29, 2026, 21:31 IST News world Will Elon Musk Merge SpaceX And Tesla? Betting Markets Think It’s Increasingly Possible Disclaimer: Comments reflect users’ views, not News18’s. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy Loading comments...
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