Could the US take control of Iran’s southern islands?
Such an operation would produce a dramatic military spectacle but would carry costs analysts doubt Washington is willing to incur. United States forces have struck
Such an operation would produce a dramatic military spectacle but would carry costs analysts doubt Washington is willing to incur. United States forces have struck Iran’s Qeshm, Kish and Abu Musa islands in recent days as part of an escalating campaign that has also pounded port cities along Iran’s southern coast, including Bandar Abbas. The attacks have revived a question that has hung over the US-Israel war on Iran since its early weeks: Is Washington preparing to seize Iranian territory? In March, a month into the war, two unnamed US officials told The Washington Post that the US Department of Defence was gearing up for raids on Kharg Island, through which about 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports pass. The comments fuelled speculation of a ground operation. Talk of a seizure died down after the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17. But the scenario is back on the table after US President Donald Trump refused to rule it out in a Fox News interview on Monday. “I can’t say that to you because if I did, it would be foolish,” Trump said when asked about such an operation. So is it bellicose rhetoric or a real possibility? The US ability to occupy Iranian islands In a “narrow tactical sense”, the US has the military capability to grab Iranian islands, Andreas Krieg, associate professor in security studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera. With enough air, naval and amphibious power – and a willingness to absorb the escalation that would follow – the US could seize a small Iranian island, he said. The US has an estimated 50,000 soldiers stationed across the Middle East, including personnel at both large, permanent bases and smaller forward sites.
Beyond seizing the islands, the US also has the military and logistical capability to occupy them because it remains the “pre-eminent global military power”, Nader Hashemi, a professor of Middle East politics at Georgetown University, told Al Jazeera. The question, Hashemi said, is what is the cost. “Temporarily capturing an island is very different from holding it, supplying it and deriving strategic benefit from it,” Krieg said. Qeshm would be especially hard, he noted, because it is a large island sitting directly off the Iranian mainland rather than an isolated outpost. Smaller islands like Hengam could be overrun more easily but would stay within reach of Iranian artillery, drones, missiles and small-boat swarms – and taking several islands at once would amount to “a major amphibious campaign, not a limited raid”, Krieg said. Seizing the islands would also not stop Iran from disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. It would instead leave exposed US garrisons under continuous attack while handing Tehran the narrative of the US as an occupying power, he said. A costly campaign Such a move would require significant manpower. Krieg estimated “a limited operation would probably require an initial force of at least 5,000 to 10,000 personnel once combat troops, air defence, engineers, logistics, medical support and command elements are included”. The troop requirements could rise rapidly if several islands were involved or if the objective extended beyond the initial seizure, he said. “Those troops would be operating under direct fire from the Iranian mainland. Supply vessels, landing craft and helicopters would have to cross waters exposed to missiles, drones, mines and artillery,” he said. “Iran would not need to recapture the islands immediately.
The BriefWire