Trump retreat over Hormuz tolls suggests he is struggling to end Iran war
Donald Trump's latest Iran War demand lasted all of 24 hours – and suggests a president searching for unorthodox ways out of a difficult position
Donald Trump's latest Iran War demand lasted all of 24 hours – and suggests a president searching for unorthodox ways out of a difficult position. On Monday morning, in a social media post announcing the resumption of an American naval blockade on Iranian shipping, he said that all vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz – including those of US allies - must pay a 20% fee to reimburse the US "for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the world". The following day, he abandoned that proposal completely, external, offering instead that he would strike "trade and investment deals" with America's Gulf allies, implying the US would offer them safe passage through the Strait in return.
The abrupt about-face was the latest twist in a conflict that has now lasted more than four months and, despite a month old "memorandum of understanding" that secured a temporary ceasefire and set up a framework for negotiations, shows no sign of ending. Trump may be reluctant to escalate the war given its continued unpopularity, the likelihood of rising energy prices and the risks associated with America forces and allies once again coming under Iranian attack. He might find the prospect of ending the conflict without reaching an agreement he can claim is better than the one Barack Obama's administration negotiated in 2015 also distasteful, however. "I think the most likely ending is a non-ending," Rosemary Kelanid, Director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities "This has turned into a war of attrition, and wars of attrition tend to go on for a long, long period of time." The US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) - and the hopes that came with it for an end to the war - died at 10:16 ET (16:16 BST) on Tuesday on Truth Social, when Trump announced a resumption of the US blockade of Iranian shipping, amidst a flurry of new US military strikes on targets across Iran.
The Iranians countered by stepping up attacks on US allies and commercial shipping in the region, grinding traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill once more. After nearly a month of on-again, off-again negotiations between the two nations, punctuated by occasional hostilities that tested the definition of a "ceasefire", Trump and the Americans appear to be facing the same challenges that had been present through much of
the Iran War. While militarily, the Americans were achieving their objectives, as measured in Iranian ships, planes and targets destroyed and defence capabilities degraded, politically the conflict was far from resolved. Iran, militarily weakened though it may be, could still deny access to the Strait of Hormuz. And unless the Americans are willing to dramatically escalate their military operations in the region, there was little they could do to stop them.
The BriefWire