Maharashtra rainfall deficit continues; El Niño impact cited
Rainfall in most districts of Maharashtra has remained below the seasonal average since June 1, though parts of Konkan and central Maharashtra recorded precipitation exceeding
Rainfall in most districts of Maharashtra has remained below the seasonal average since June 1, though parts of Konkan and central Maharashtra recorded precipitation exceeding July’s normal during the previous week. Meteorological department data shows deficits of 30-40% in several districts and 50-70% in some areas relative to the expected rainfall for this period. July is the month when agricultural operations depend on adequate soil moisture, and the current shortfall has raised concerns among farming communities. The monsoon had shown activity in early July, bringing showers to Konkan and central Maharashtra, but that phase has subsided. “The monsoon trough has shifted to a position that does not favour widespread rainfall over the State,” said a meteorological department official.
“Systems that could reinforce the flow are not active at present,” it said. Forecasts for the coming week indicate that only light to moderate rain may occur in isolated pockets, with no weather warnings issued for Monday (July 13, 2026) or Tuesday (July 14, 2026). Dry conditions are likely to persist across the State unless the weather systems that sustain monsoon flow become active again. The El Niño condition in the Pacific Ocean has gained strength over the monsoon season, and its effect on rainfall distribution has been observed across the State. “El Niño typically suppresses monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent,” noted a climate analyst. “Records from 1950 onwards show that strong El Niño years correlate with below‑normal precipitation, and this year’s phase appears comparable to 2015-16 in its intensity.” That year had witnessed a major impact on India’s monsoon.
Rainfall distribution has varied regionally. Konkan and parts of central Maharashtra have recorded above-average precipitation, while Marathwada and many districts in central Maharashtra show deficits. The uneven pattern has resulted in moisture stress in some areas, even as other regions received excess water. Among southern States, Tamil Nadu has reported near-normal rainfall, while others have recorded below-average precipitation. Temperatures in several districts have risen during the break in monsoon activity. “The rise in temperature and the dry spell are adding to the stress on standing crops,” said an agriculture extension officer from a deficit district. “Farmers are waiting for the next spell to decide on sowing and irrigation schedules.” The meteorological department has stated that any revival of rainfall would depend on the formation and movement of weather systems that drive monsoon circulation.
The BriefWire