Why Hormuz won't reopen easily
Washington: President Donald Trump has been trying to force Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz for months, turning to everything from airstrikes and
Washington: President Donald Trump has been trying to force Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz for months, turning to everything from airstrikes and naval blockades to negotiations and threats to destroy a "whole civilization."But restoring oil tanker traffic in the vital Middle East shipping corridor to prewar flows likely will require a much bigger armada of U.S. warships if not tens of thousands of American troops on Iranian soil, experts say. Despite on-and-off fighting, Iran can still target vessels in the narrow Persian Gulf waterway with drones and missiles that have been hidden in a country a third of the size of the continental United States.Also Read: Iran's tankers take secret route through Hormuz to dodge US sanctions"Iran has been preparing for this type of asymmetric conflict for decades now," said Jason H. Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a former Pentagon official. "I think they're starting to demonstrate why no other U.S. president since Reagan has elected to engage at this level of conflict with Iran, because they have that ability to completely disrupt the Strait of Hormuz."Trump said Monday that the U.S. is reimposing its blockade on Iran's ports and will charge other ships for safe passage through the strait. Iran has insisted it controls the waterway, through which 20% of the world's oil normally flows, while both sides have exchanged fire over the past week in a series of skirmishes that threaten a return to all-out war.It underscores the bind that Trump is in as commercial shipping remains stifled in the strait, oil prices are rising again and Iran has shown no sign of capitulating. The war has been unpopular with many Americans and could factor into the upcoming midterm elections with gas prices high."They thought the situation was under control, and now they're seeing renewed escalations, and the markets responding negatively to this," said Eric Lob, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Middle East program and a professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University.Also Read: 'Hormuz blockade only for Iran and anybody doing business with them': Trump"It's really a kind of test of wills to see how much economic pain the Iranians are willing to absorb and then how much economic pain and even political liability this could be for Trump and the Republicans heading into November," Lob said.Securing the strait could require ground troopsBefore he was a scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, Campbell was a researcher at RAND, where he worked in coordination with the U.S. military to simulate war-game scenarios against Iran."The things they're doing now are precisely the types of things that were discussed and came up in really all of these types of situational scenarios," Campbell said.Iran produces parts for its weapons across different facilities to reduce their risk of being attacked, Campbell said.
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