March to July: What’s different as US-Iran fighting escalates again?
With ceasefire in shambles and both sides exchanging tit-for-tat attacks, is the region again plunging into all-out war? Air raid sirens have blared over Gulf
With ceasefire in shambles and both sides exchanging tit-for-tat attacks, is the region again plunging into all-out war? Air raid sirens have blared over Gulf nations as the United States and Iran have launched expansive attacks against each other again, escalating tensions as their fragile ceasefire has unravelled over the past week. Oil prices have spiked, and markets have plunged after Tehran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy kill switch and the biggest flashpoint in the ongoing conflict. After US President Donald Trump said the April ceasefire struck by the warring nations was “over”, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said, “Revenge is the will of the nation.” So are the US and Iran back to full-fledged war? How did the US-Iran ceasefire unravel? On July 6, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) struck three commercial vessels, including a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, off Oman. The following day, the US said it carried out retaliatory strikes on Iranian military targets, leading Tehran to respond with missile and drone attacks on military bases across the Gulf where US forces are deployed. On Wednesday, Trump said the ceasefire was over. The IRGC shut down the Strait of Hormuz, saying the US was interfering in the waterway’s management by facilitating alternative transit routes. It triggered tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran with Washington carrying out deadly strikes on multiple Iranian cities, most of them along the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran. Iran has attacked Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan and Qatar and has conducted more attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Are the US and Iran back to all-out war?
Analysts told Al Jazeera that the conflict is currently evolving from tit-for-tat attacks to sustained combat – but with limited areas of engagement. In the first round of attacks on Iran that began on February 28, the US and Israel conducted a broad, sustained air campaign across Iranian cities. The attacks killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran on the first day of the war. The latest round of US strikes, by contrast, is largely concentrated around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian counterattacks have so far been focused on military bases in the Gulf that are used by US soldiers although debris from intercepted missiles and drones has fallen elsewhere, causing injuries. Unlike the relentless air attacks on Iran in March and Tehran’s own blistering response through attacks on its Gulf neighbours, the latest round of attacks comes at a time when the US and Iran are still not ruling out talks completely. In fact, in his post announcing that the ceasefire was over, Trump noted that both sides would continue to hold talks. Qatar and Pakistan are working behind the scenes to contain the conflict. More questions linger for Trump at home, especially if his administration must now secure congressional authorisation for the war on Iran. The War Powers Act states that a war must be authorised by Congress 60 days after hostilities have started. Trump dodged this requirement by claiming that the war was already “terminated” when the ceasefire began on April 7- before the 60-day timeline on the first phase of the war was over. The war on Iran has been widely unpopular in the US.
The BriefWire