Why Monsoon’s Sudden Revival Is About More Than Just El Niño
Why Monsoon’s Sudden Revival Is About More Than Just El Niño Written By, Last Updated: July 11, 2026, 05:35 IST In just ten days, India’s
Why Monsoon’s Sudden Revival Is About More Than Just El Niño Written By, Last Updated: July 11, 2026, 05:35 IST In just ten days, India’s staggering rainfall deficit reduced from -40% in June, which also ended as India’s fifth driest June since 1905, to -15% by July 10 The low pressure that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 2 intensified into a depression as it moved north-westwards towards Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, increasing rainfall along the way. While the second system—an active offshore trough on the west coast—triggered extremely heavy rains over Konkan-Goa and Madhya Maharashtra during the same period. Representational image The sudden surge in monsoon with an intense spell of rainfall over the week may have defied expectations of El Niño weakening the monsoon. Scientists, however, say that an even more powerful force may be at play—global warming. Large parts of India witnessed heavy rains from July 2 to 8, with Central India, which forms the core monsoon zone of the country, recording rainfall that was nearly 137% above the long-period average. The staggering -40% rainfall deficit left in June, which also ended as India’s fifth driest June since 1905, fell to -14% in just ten days. The southwest monsoon, which remained sluggish all through June, also accelerated and covered the entire country by 9th July—a day later than its normal date.
The intense spell followed the India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s forecast of below-normal rainfall in July under the negative influence of El Niño, which had already formed in June. Director-General of IMD, Dr KJ Ramesh, says El Niño has had limited influence on the current active monsoon spell. “There were two intense rain-bearing systems—one over the Bay of Bengal and the other over Gujarat and the north Arabian Sea. Both were feeding into each other, becoming intense, leading to extremely heavy rains over the region. This is a normal occurrence during the monsoon season," he explains. The low pressure that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 2 intensified into a depression as it moved north-westwards towards Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, increasing rainfall along the way. While the second system—an active offshore trough on the west coast—triggered extremely heavy rains over Konkan-Goa and Madhya Maharashtra during the same period. It Is Not Just About El Niño The intensity of the rains was so high that Mumbai city received nearly 873.1 mm rainfall against the normal of 212 mm during the week. In Pune, it crossed 415 mm against the normal of 69.5 mm. Overall, Madhya Maharashtra saw rainfall that was 246% above the long-period average. Scientists point out that such heavy spells of rain are becoming more common during the monsoons in recent years, irrespective of global factors like El Niño.
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