The deadly El Niño that killed millions in the 1870s could return in 2026
PC: Bloomberg A strong El Niño could emerge by late 2026, forecasters say El Niño's return could bring droughts, floods and shifting weather Scientists warn
PC: Bloomberg A strong El Niño could emerge by late 2026, forecasters say El Niño's return could bring droughts, floods and shifting weather Scientists warn the next El Niño may amplify human-caused warming Experts say the next El Niño could match the infamous 1877 event El Niño's biggest impacts may be felt in farms, food and water. Wildfires, storms and wider economic costs Forecasts for the tropical Pacific have shifted noticeably over the past month, with climate scientists now placing greater confidence in the arrival of a particularly powerful El Niño later this year. While these events are part of a natural climate cycle, their effects rarely stay confined to the Pacific Ocean. Changes in ocean temperatures can alter rainfall, drought patterns, storms and heat across large parts of the world, sometimes affecting harvests, water supplies and public health at the same time. The latest outlook suggests the coming event could rank among the strongest observed in modern records, prompting governments, aid organisations and climate experts to pay close attention.Although the exact outcome will depend on how conditions evolve over the coming months, expectations have shifted enough for many forecasters to begin preparing for impacts that could stretch well beyond individual weather events.The latest seasonal outlook from the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center indicates that El Niño is increasingly likely to develop during the coming weeks before strengthening through the second half of the year.Current projections give an 82% chance that El Niño conditions will become established between now and July.
Looking further ahead, forecasters now estimate a 65% probability that the event will reach either a strong or very strong category between October 2026 and February 2027, as reported by the Weather Service Climate Prediction Centre.A very strong El Niño is generally associated with sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific rising at least 2°C above long-term averages. Events reaching that level are uncommon, and only a handful have been recorded since reliable observations began.El Niño forms as part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a naturally recurring pattern that alternates between warmer and cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific every few years.When ocean waters warm significantly, the atmosphere responds. Rainfall patterns shift, jet streams move and weather systems develop differently across continents. Some regions experience prolonged drought, while others receive unusually heavy rainfall. The consequences often appear in agriculture, fisheries, water management and disaster response rather than simply in temperature records.The world is currently moving out of neutral ENSO conditions, with ocean observations suggesting the transition is already under way.The last El Niño, which lasted from mid-2023 until early 2024, added to the background warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions and contributed to exceptionally high global temperatures.Climate analysts expect the same combination could unfold again if the coming event strengthens as forecast.
The BriefWire