El Nino could become one of history's strongest, impacting India, Australia, the US, weather agency warns

Published 9 July 2026 · india

The weather-roiling El Niño that emerged across the Pacific last month has continued to build and will likely be one of the strongest in more

The weather-roiling El Niño that emerged across the Pacific last month has continued to build and will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, the US Climate Prediction Center said. Sea surface temperatures of 1C (1.8F) or more above normal, the hallmark of the phenomenon, have spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and there’s an 81% chance it will become a very strong El Niño and rank among the “largest events in the historical record going back to 1950,” the agency said in its monthly forecast. Some parts of the eastern Pacific reached 2.7C above normal in the last week.

Forecasters expect El Niño to persist into 2027 “Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes,” the Climate Prediction Center said. El Niño “will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will last through early spring 2027.” Global weather patterns likely to be disrupted El Niño is closely watched by traders, markets and governments because it offers seasonal insight into weather extremes that can trigger floods, droughts, cold snaps and alter hurricane and typhoon activity across the Atlantic and Pacific.

El Niño strengthens wind shear in the Caribbean, disrupting developing tropical storms and hurricanes during the si month season that began June 1. Elsewhere, it typically brings cooler, wetter winters to the southern US while increasing the risk of drought and wildfires in Australia. El Niño has already been blamed for depleting reservoirs in India and putting pressure on the power grid during peak summer demand. Generation from hydroelectric plants fell almost 21% from a year earlier, the steepest drop since February 2024, data from India’s power ministry show. Output from dams declined nearly 7% in the quarter ended June, while coal, nuclear and renewable plants generated more to meet record demand driven by extreme heat.

AccuWeather Inc. reduced its forecast for named storms across the Atlantic to 8 to 14 on Tuesday, down from 11 to 16 the commercial forecaster predicted in March, according to a statement. The 30-year average across the Atlantic is for 14 storms to be named, which happens when they reach tropical storm strength.