'Bullying Is No Longer Cost-Free': Did Donald Trump Underestimate Iran?

Published 9 July 2026 · us

'Bullying Is No Longer Cost-Free': Did Donald Trump Underestimate Iran? Written By, Last Updated: July 09, 2026, 09:31 IST Iran still retains leverage through Strait

'Bullying Is No Longer Cost-Free': Did Donald Trump Underestimate Iran? Written By, Last Updated: July 09, 2026, 09:31 IST Iran still retains leverage through Strait of Hormuz, continues to influence regional security calculations and remains capable of imposing costs beyond the battlefield Rapid Read Did US President Donald Trump miscalculate Iran's resolve? (Reuters) “America still hasn’t learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free. Let me put it plainly: if you strike, you’ll get hit." That was the blunt warning from Iran’s chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf after US President Donald Trump declared the Iran ceasefire “over" and ordered fresh military strikes targeting Iranian capabilities linked to the Strait of Hormuz. The exchange revives a question that has followed the Middle East conflict since the first American and Israeli strikes on Iran earlier this year: Did Washington underestimate Iran? آمریکا هنوز یاد نگرفته است که زورگویی و بدعهدی دیگر بیهزینه نیست. شفاف بگویم: بزنید، میخورید.دست و پای بیهوده نزنید که بیشتر فرو خواهید رفت: تنگه هرمز، فقط با «ترتیبات ایرانی» باز میشود نه با تهدیدات آمریکایی. — محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) July 9, 2026 Military analysts say the answer is more complicated than whether either side won or lost on the battlefield. Instead, they argue that the United States appears to have misjudged Iran’s resilience, its unconventional strengths and its willingness to absorb punishment while continuing to shape the conflict. The Miscalculation Was Never About Military Superiority No serious military expert argues that Iran possesses conventional military capabilities comparable to those of the United States. The US continues to enjoy overwhelming advantages in air power, naval strength, intelligence, precision strike capability and logistics. The question is whether those advantages automatically translate into political success. ALSO READ | US-Iran Ceasefire Ends: 3 Terrifying Scenarios For Middle East If Fighting Escalates Explained Speaking to Al Jazeera in April, retired US Army Colonel and military strategist Lawrence Wilkerson argued that Washington misunderstood the nature of the challenge.

“The United States has never really understood Iran," he said. Wilkerson argued that American policymakers often assume overwhelming military force can quickly compel political concessions from Tehran. Instead, Iran has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to survive sustained pressure while waiting for its adversaries’ political patience to wear thin. According to him, Iran’s objective has never been defeating the US militarily; it has been making the costs of confrontation unacceptable. Iran’s Greatest Weapon Isn’t Its Army One of the biggest assumptions before the conflict was that destroying missile launchers and military infrastructure would significantly reduce Iran’s leverage. Instead, Tehran repeatedly showed that geography itself remains one of its strongest strategic assets. ALSO READ | From Hormuz To Airstrikes: 5 Events That Shattered The Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, making it one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints. Rather than attempting direct naval confrontation with the US Navy, Iran has repeatedly demonstrated it can threaten commercial shipping through drones, missiles, mines and fast attack craft. The latest round of hostilities again centred on the Strait after Washington accused Iran of attacking commercial vessels before launching fresh strikes. Tehran responded by insisting that shipping would operate only under “Iranian arrangements". Analysts have long argued that even the threat of disrupting Hormuz can raise insurance costs, unsettle global energy markets and pressure governments far beyond the Middle East, giving Iran an upper hand in the hostilities. Underestimated Iran’s Ability To Absorb Damage Iran has suffered extensive military losses. Their Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other senior commanders have been killed. Tehran’s military infrastructure has been destroyed and economic sanctions remain severe, especially after the United States revoked a recently issued waiver that allowed the sale of Iranian oil under a memorandum of understanding. Yet Tehran has continued to fight while simultaneously negotiating.