From north to south, Africa braces for volatile El Nino year
The World Meteorological Association warns that the El Nino climate phenomenon could bring drought, floods and displacement to parts of Africa later this year. Are
The World Meteorological Association warns that the El Nino climate phenomenon could bring drought, floods and displacement to parts of Africa later this year. Are governments prepared? The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have appealed for over $200 million (€175 million) in funds to help protect 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries from the looming return the destructive El Nino weather pattern. The support would include cash transfers, climate-resilient seeds, livestock protection and flood-control measures, as extreme weather patterns affect much of the world already. "El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific, and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in many parts of the world," the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned. In Africa, the countries listed as most at risk include Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Severe drought in Zimbabwe threatens millions with hunger To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video What El Nino means across Africa El Nino is a naturally occurring warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which usually happens every two to seven years. It can last nine to 12 months. In some regions, El Nino can bring hotter and drier conditions; in others, it can increase rainfall and flooding. "For Africa, it's not one climate story. It's actually going to be a much more varied impact," Kgaugelo Mkumbeni, a research officer in the Climate Risk and Human Security Project at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, South Africa, told DW. Southern Africa has in the past experienced "hotter and much drier conditions" during El Nino events, Mkumbeni said, which raises the risk of "drought, water shortages and general food insecurity." The situation in Eastern Africa, however, is more complex, as El Nino can have different effects depending on the season.
Are African nations underestimating the risks of El Nino? To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Global warming: Bad to worse Bhargabi Bharadwaj, a research associate at Chatham House's Environment and Society Centre, told DW that "El Nino reshapes rainfall and temperature patterns around the world, though its impacts can vary depending on the region and which season it hits." "Some areas will face drier conditions, which increases risk of drought and wildfire occurrence, whereas other parts of the world will have wetter conditions and face likelihood of storms and flooding," Bharadwaj said. Scientists such as Bharadwaj say climate change does not directly cause El Nino, but it can make its effects more severe. "We're working with warmer baseline temperatures of around 1.4 degrees (Celsius, or 2.5 F) higher than preindustrial levels. This means that, when an El Nino event does occur, then there are more extreme outcomes," Bharadwaj said. Some experts are also concerned about the possibility of a very strong — or "super" — El Nino this year, "when your average temperature difference is around 2 degrees higher, or at least forecast to be 2 degrees higher," she said. Acting before disaster strikes The real challenge is whether governments and aid agencies can act quickly enough, as "science is ahead of policy," Bharadwaj said. In northern Kenya, Abdikadir Aden Hassan, founder of Garissa Million Trees, told DW that the danger is not only the possibility of heavy rains and subsequent floods, but the fact that they may come after months of drought. "We are in a dry spell and are headed toward drought in August and September," Hassan said. "Then, in October, November and December, we are expected to have the short rains. People may be coming out of drought and then going straight into flash floods. That means their livelihoods will be affected for a second time." With lives and livelihoods at stake, experts say Africa's climate preparedness cannot be left to individual governments or ministries.
The BriefWire