Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Whether a Wildfire Will Burn Down Your Town
Sylvie Andrews and her partner didn’t just lose the new house they’d helped build when the Eaton Fire ripped through Altadena, California, in January 2025
Sylvie Andrews and her partner didn’t just lose the new house they’d helped build when the Eaton Fire ripped through Altadena, California, in January 2025. They lost an entire decade’s worth of sacrifices they’d made to put down roots in their hometown, and the community they’d created. “We put a lot of blood, sweat, and tears into it,” Andrews said. “That’s what we lost in the fire.” That fire, along with the Palisades Fire to the west, destroyed more than 16,000 structures and killed 31 people. But while Andrews and thousands of Angelenos were racing to evacuate, other people saw a financial opportunity. Using Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, they made bets on the fires—how they would grow, how long they would last, and how much they would destroy. Prediction markets are essentially gambling websites where people bet on the outcome of events, including elections, sports, the weather, and more.
Anything is fair game, from oil prices and the spread of infectious diseases to international incidents. Markets usually frame questions in a “yes” or “no” fashion, with the price of a “contract” fluctuating between $0 and $1. A price of 50 cents on a “yes” contract means that the people doing the betting collectively believe the event has a 50 percent chance of happening. Market hosts make money by charging a fee on wagers. In January 2025, Polymarket listed almost 20 questions, created by the platform’s “markets team,” related to the wildfires burning up Southern California. How many acres will the Palisades Fire burn by Friday, three days after it ignited on a Tuesday? Will the Palisades Fire reach Santa Monica by Sunday? When will the Palisades fire be 50 percent contained? Will the Palisades and Eaton fires be contained before February? People spent $1.2 million betting on these queries, according to Aeon Magazine.
“Wow,” Andrews said repeatedly when she learned the figure. “My first take is that it’s morally reprehensible,” she said. “The fact that someone would feel OK doing that flabbergasts me.” “The prediction markets are just the wild, wild West,” said Susan Sherman, who grew up in Pacific Palisades. She lost her childhood home in the Palisades Fire; her late parents had owned it since 1963, and now it was gone. She sold the empty lot a few months ago. “I look at (betting on the fires) as just being very crass and heartless.” As prediction markets boom and a new wildfire season begins, fire survivors and ethicists say that the betting encourages and rewards callous thinking—and dangerous behavior. One major concern stemming from wildfire prediction markets is arson. “That’s what has me nervous,” Sherman said. Theoretically, making a bet could give someone the perverse incentive to start a fire or help one grow.
The BriefWire