Strong El Niño on the way? UN warns of extreme weather risk from July-September
El Niño is forecast to intensify (AP) Higher risk of heatwaves, droughts and heavy rain El Niño is forecast to intensify (WMO) What regions could
El Niño is forecast to intensify (AP) Higher risk of heatwaves, droughts and heavy rain El Niño is forecast to intensify (WMO) What regions could be affected? Below-normal rainfall across parts of the Indian subcontinent, much of Australia, and parts of the tropical Indian Ocean. Above-normal rainfall over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and parts of the northern Gulf of Guinea in Africa. Increased chances of below-normal rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central America, the Caribbean, and northwestern South America. A contrasting pattern in Europe, with wetter-than-average conditions likely in the south and drier conditions expected in the north, although confidence remains relatively low.
What is El Niño? World Meteorological Organisation (WHO), in a press release on Friday, warned that El Niño has officially developed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to strengthen rapidly over the next few months.According to United Nations' weather and climate agency, El Niño will intensify into a strong event between July and September 2026, with sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific expected to exceed 2°C above average in key monitoring regions.WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the
developing El Niño is likely to amplify weather extremes across many regions."This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world."The organisation said it has launched a coordinated global effort involving UN agencies, governments, humanitarian organisations and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health to strengthen seasonal forecasts, climate services and early warning systems.The agency forecasts:Meanwhile, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are also expected across the Indian Ocean
and tropical Atlantic.El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It typically develops every two to seven years, lasts nine to twelve months, and is one of the world's strongest drivers of year-to-year climate variability.Its impacts vary depending on its intensity and interaction with other climate systems, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, meaning not every region experiences the same effects.
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