How US-Iran war may push Gulf countries to ‘diversify’ security alliances

Published 2 July 2026 · india

Despite Iranian attacks, several GCC states continue to speak with Tehran in an effort to mend ties and forge cooperation. Gulf countries are likely to

Despite Iranian attacks, several GCC states continue to speak with Tehran in an effort to mend ties and forge cooperation. Gulf countries are likely to accelerate the push to diversify their security partnerships after the United States-Israel war on Iran, analysts say, as the region grapples with the lasting impact of the conflict. As Tehran and Washington hold talks towards a lasting agreement, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations – which came under Iranian attack during the war – are expanding their relationships amid the uncertainty. Even before the war, Saudi Arabia signed a defence pact with Pakistan, an alliance that could expand to other countries in the region. For years, Gulf states have been buying defence systems from some European countries, while maintaining friendly relations with Russia and China – an approach that will likely be cemented by the conflict, experts say. Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, stressed that seeking new security partners is not aimed at replacing the US. “The focus for countries like Saudi Arabia is the regional balance of power and pushing back on both Iran and Israel,” Jacobs Khalaf told Al Jazeera. “This doesn’t mean replacing the US with Pakistan; it means diversifying partnerships and setting up platforms like the so-called quad group of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Egypt and Pakistan. It also means developing their own domestic defensive capabilities and developing more regional autonomy.” Iranian attacks Since the war broke out on February 28, Iranian attacks have targeted military bases hosting US troops as well as some civilian sites, including airports, energy facilities and hotels in some Gulf countries. Even after Tehran and Washington reached a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to end the war earlier this month, the Iranian military – spearheaded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – launched missiles and drones at targets in Bahrain and Kuwait in skirmishes with the US.

Besides Iran, many Gulf countries view Israel’s expansionist policies and military campaigns as a threat as well, analysts say. Last year, Israel bombed the Qatari capital Doha in an attempt to kill Hamas leaders during US-backed Gaza ceasefire mediations. President Donald Trump said he was “very unhappy” with the strikes on Qatar – a major non-NATO ally of the US – and denied approving or having prior knowledge of the attack. Jacobs Khalaf said the decision by the US and Israel to attack Iran and Tehran’s retaliation against the Arabian Peninsula, which saw Iranian forces shut down the Strait of Hormuz, created an “unprecedented security crisis” for GCC members. “The US and Israeli war on Iran and its hugely negative impact on Gulf states has convinced some regional capitals that they want to shift away from a US-centric security architecture,” she told Al Jazeera. “The Iran war is making some Gulf states question the value of the US as a security guarantor.” Annelle Sheline, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, also said that GCC countries will likely look to “diversify” their security alliances and deepen ties with China, Turkiye and Europe. “I suspect that the Gulf will want to maintain its security relationship with the United States, but that it will no longer want to be in a position where it is relying on the United States,” Sheline told Al Jazeera. She added that US forces in the region not only proved “unreliable” in preventing Iran’s attacks, but “actually, the presence of the US military in Gulf countries had the opposite of a deterrent effect. These military bases became targets,” Sheline said. Mending ties with Iran Despite the anger over the Iranian attacks, Gulf countries have kept lines of communication open with Tehran, even at the security level. Several GCC countries are moving to mend ties and deepen economic relations with their neighbour across the Gulf.