Below normal rain forecast for July raises concern for Kerala

Published 1 July 2026 · india

Although the southwest monsoon began on a pleasant note in Kerala, with light spells of rain across the State and without any extreme or inclement

Although the southwest monsoon began on a pleasant note in Kerala, with light spells of rain across the State and without any extreme or inclement weather, the opening month of the rainy season ended on a sombre note, with a 34% rainfall deficit. Further, the forecast for July has compounded the concerns of the farming community, with below-normal rainfall predicted across the State by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). A deficient June and July, which together contribute around 65% of Kerala’s annual southwest monsoon rainfall, are a clear indication of the possibility of early drought-like conditions unless the shortfall is offset by an intense revival of the monsoon in August or September.

Speaking to The Hindu, Neetha K. Gopal, Director of the IMD, Thiruvananthapuram, said the outlook for July indicates another deficient month, with the absence of rain-producing systems in the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea, favouring dry conditions over Kerala after an initial spell in the first week of July. Although a low-pressure area is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal this week, it is unlikely to trigger a major spell of rain in Kerala due to its position. Further, the strengthening El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the unfavourable position of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the prevailing neutral Indian Ocean Dipole have contributed to weak westerlies, dampening the monsoon flow across the State and most other parts of the country, said Ms. Gopal.

Weak monsoon conditions have led to significant deficits in districts like Wayanad (-67%), Idukki (-54%), and Palakkad (-41%) as of July 1, affecting most of Kerala’s large reservoirs. The monsoon currents have failed to reach the ghat regions bordering the Western Ghats. As a result, the combined storage in the reservoirs of hydroelectric projects managed by the Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB) was hovering around 20% of their total capacity at the end of June. According to data from the IMD, the June monsoon rainfall in Kerala has shown a declining trend, evident from rainfall records spanning from 1901 to 2026.

Over the last 126 years, June rainfall has decreased at an average rate of 1.4 mm per year, amounting to a reduction of about 176 mm over the period. The erratic nature of the monsoon also demands early measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change, especially during El Niño and La Niña years, according to experts.