After Afghanistan fires drones into Pakistan, what’s next?
Pakistan and Afghanistan have been locked in an on-off cycle of cross-border strikes that has left their ties in tatters. Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan’s military
Pakistan and Afghanistan have been locked in an on-off cycle of cross-border strikes that has left their ties in tatters. Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan’s military said on Wednesday it shot down four drones launched by the Afghan Taliban into Balochistan, hours after Afghanistan’s defence ministry claimed its air force had struck what it called ISIL (ISIS) “centres” in Balochistan’s Pishin district and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said the drones were detected immediately after crossing the border and were neutralised through “sophisticated countermeasures”, describing the launch as part of the Afghan Taliban’s “patronisation and support of terrorist outfits”. Kabul’s defence ministry said separately that its strikes targeted a centre in Pishin district, allegedly used to plan “subversive activities and attacks in Afghanistan”, adding that no civilians were harmed. Neither side’s claims could be independently verified. Earlier, on June 27, gunmen attacked a paramilitary compound in Karachi, killing three personnel. Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a splinter faction of the Pakistan Taliban (TTP), claimed responsibility, and the suspect captured alive was identified as an Afghan national. Pakistan responded on June 29 with strikes in Paktia, Paktika and Kunar provinces, claiming 25 fighters were killed. The Taliban government said 36 civilians died. The drone strikes mark the latest in an escalating back-and-forth of military strikes between Afghan and Pakistani territory since October 2025. The question is, will the drone strikes lead to a new escalation from Pakistan, or will the neighbours find a way to return to diplomacy to resolve their deepening tensions?
Escalation cycle Behind those tensions are numbers that Pakistani officials say they cannot ignore. The Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) recorded 699 “terrorist” attacks across the country in 2025, a 34 percent increase from the previous year, with at least 1,034 people killed. Meanwhile, the United States-based Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project has documented at least a dozen drone launches into Pakistani territory since February. Still, Pakistani officials told Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity that for now, they plan to pursue what they described as a strategy of controlled escalation: responding forcefully to armed attacks from non-state groups while being more selective about how to retaliate against the Afghan Taliban government strikes. Pakistan declared “open war” on February 27 and launched Operation Ghazab-lil-Haq (Wrath for Justice) after Taliban forces attacked Pakistani border posts, themselves a response to earlier Pakistani strikes on armed rebel camps in eastern Afghanistan. By March, a Pakistani strike on a rehabilitation centre near Kabul had killed more than 100 people, according to independent estimates. Taliban authorities called it a “crime against humanity”. Last year, Qatari and Turkish mediation produced an October ceasefire that briefly held before follow-up talks in Istanbul collapsed twice. Chinese-mediated talks in Urumqi in April this year led to a measurable drop in Pakistani air strikes, with Taliban officials reportedly prepared to offer written guarantees against the TTP. However, the lull lasted only about two months before tensions resurfaced in June.
The BriefWire