Gold price prediction: After worst quarter in 13 years, will gold continue to fall?

Published 1 July 2026 · finance

The weakness has extended into the new quarter, with gold falling for a fifth consecutive week and slipping below $3,980/oz, its lowest level since November

The weakness has extended into the new quarter, with gold falling for a fifth consecutive week and slipping below $3,980/oz, its lowest level since November. (AI image) Gold price prediction today Gold prices will continue to be under pressure with rate hike expectations in place, with near-term outlook negative, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. Focus for This Week Technical Levels & Near-Term Outlook Gold (Spot) CMP: $3,975/oz Support: $3,880 / $3,800 Resistance: $4,170 / $4,300 MCX Gold CMP: ₹1,41,000 Support: ₹1,37,700/ ₹1,34,800 Resistance: ₹1,48,000 / ₹1,52,600 Gold Price Outlook International Silver CMP: $57.57/oz Support: $54 / $52 Resistance: $60/ $64 MCX Silver CMP: ₹2,23,800 (Sept contract) Support: ₹2,10,000/ ₹2,02,000 Resistance: ₹2,33,000 / ₹2,48,800 (Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own.

These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.) Gold ended Q2 of calendar year 2026 down nearly 14%, its worst quarterly performance since 2013 as expectations of higher US interest rates, easing US-Iran tensions, a stronger US dollar, and resilient US economic data reduced safe-haven demand. After touching a record high above $5,600/oz in January, spot gold has corrected nearly 29%, with elevated Treasury yields continuing to weigh on the non-yielding metal.The weakness has extended into the new quarter, with gold falling for a fifth consecutive week and slipping below $3,980/oz, its lowest level since November. Hawkish Fed commentary, firm US macro data, and a stronger dollar continue to pressure prices, while the recent Death Cross (50-DMA below 200-DMA) reinforces the bearish technical outlook.Physical demand has improved in India as lower prices attracted buyers, although Chinese demand remains subdued.

Meanwhile, global gold ETFs witnessed net outflows of over 38 tonnes during the week ended 26 June, reflecting continued investor caution amid higher-for-longer rate expectations.Markets will closely monitor US Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, FOMC commentary, Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index for further clues on the Fed's policy path.Investors will also track developments in the US-Iran negotiations, broader geopolitical developments, and ETF flows to assess whether the recent correction is attracting fresh investment demand or whether higher-for-longer rate expectations continue to pressure bullion.Precious metals are likely to remain under pressure as long as expectations of tighter US monetary policy persist. However, after the recent sharp correction, short-covering could support prices in the near term if incoming US data softens the rate outlook.