Births falling yet population rising: India's unique fertility story explained in 10 charts

Published 30 June 2026 · india

• Replacement Fertility (Replacement-Level Fertility) • Total Fertility Rate (TFR) • Birth Rate (Crude Birth Rate) Where does India stand? 2026, 131 countries and territories

• Replacement Fertility (Replacement-Level Fertility) • Total Fertility Rate (TFR) • Birth Rate (Crude Birth Rate) Where does India stand? 2026, 131 countries and territories 2.1 children per woman 1.9 around 1.3 crore people largest population gain of any country 10 countries expected to add the most people lowest fertility rate Bangladesh Indonesia Democratic Republic of Congo 5.8 children per woman 37 lakh people India's population growth is no longer being driven by high fertility, but by its large and youthful population base 2. What factors drive population growth? Population momentum (The Biggest Driver) 1.4 billion large share of people currently in their 20s and 30s—the prime childbearing years Births still exceed deaths natural increase around 1.3 crore people 9.5 million deaths annually Crude Death Rate (CDR) 8–10 million Increasing life expectancy 1950 just 41 years 69 years 2024 around 72 years Declining infant mortality Sample Registration System (SRS) Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) 30 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2019 24 in 2024 Regional differences Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala Education is driving fertility lower Sample Registration System (SRS) no formal education 3.2 children 1.8 1.6 2.1 children 1.5 2.6 to 2.1 1.8 to 1.5 No children after turning 30 A study published in Nature titled "Changes in Age at Last Birth and Its Determinants in India" found that Indian women are completing their childbearing at younger ages. Researchers Mayank Singh, Chander Shekhar and Neha Shri reported that the median age at last birth has remained below 30 years since Family Health Survey (NFHS) data-3, reflecting a shift towards smaller families and earlier completion of childbearing. This trend is another indicator of India's ongoing demographic transition and declining fertility. The birth ladder is thinning India's birth pattern has changed dramatically over the past decade, with first and second children now accounting for a much larger share of all births. First-born children made up 43% of live births in 2014, rising to 66.4% by 2024. Meanwhile, third-and-higher-order births declined from 25.9% to 10.8%, while fourth-or-higher births fell sharply from 10.8% to just 3.5%. 3. Northern and central states-wise report 4. When will India's fertility begin to decline? around 2047 steep fertility-decline scenario around 2063 medium-decline scenario some Indian districts are already witnessing population decline The big picture India has crossed a major demographic milestone: for the first time in modern history its fertility rate has slipped below the replacement level.The latest SRS report from India’s Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner shows the average Indian woman is now expected to have 1.9 children — under the 2.1 threshold that keeps a population stable — joining more than 130 countries already at sub‑replacement fertility.But here’s the twist: lower fertility hasn’t stopped India’s population from growing.In 2026, India is still set to add roughly 1.3 crore people through natural increase — the largest single‑country gain anywhere.That seeming contradiction comes down to population momentum: decades of higher birth rates have built a huge cohort of young adults now entering their prime childbearing years.Even with smaller families, the sheer number of potential parents keeps births above deaths, delaying the point at which the country's population begins to stabilise and eventually decline.Before we dive into the charts, it's important to know a few demographic terms that experts use to measure population change.The average number of children a woman needs to have to replace herself and her partner in the next generation.