Gold price prediction: Why prices are unlikely to rise much in near-term; check outlook
Gold is trading with a negative bias on inflation concerns as US-Iran skirmish in the weekend sent oil and yields higher. (AI image) Gold price
Gold is trading with a negative bias on inflation concerns as US-Iran skirmish in the weekend sent oil and yields higher. (AI image) Gold price prediction today Gold prices are expected to continue being under pressure in the near-term as rate hike fears feed into a stronger dollar, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan. Gold Performance On June 29, gold traded with a negative bias on inflation concerns as US-Iran skirmish in the weekend sent oil and yields higher. Spot gold, at the time of writing this article on Monday night, was changing hands at $4024, down 1.5% for the day. On June 26, driven by a slightly weaker US Dollar on slightly softer than expected May US PCE Price Index (m-o-m) data released on June 25, the metal closed with a gain of 1.53% at $4089; however, it was down 1.4% for the week – its fourth straight weekly loss. Geopolitics and oil Following re-escalation of US-Iran conflict in the weekend, US and Iran have halted attacks and would meet in Qatar Tuesday to discuss the memorandum of understanding signed this month, though Iran says that nothing is planned. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt warned that violence will be met with violence. Meanwhile, Iran claimed a right to full control of the Strait of Hormuz and insisted vessels to use a specific route as Oman and the International Maritime Organization try to establish a new route that bypasses Iranian waters. Iran sees this alternative route as directly contradicting the fifth article of what Washington signed onto in its memorandum of understanding with Tehran, which led to a cease-fire. Although the article being somewhat vague does not state it clearly, Iran interprets it charging Iran with ensuring safe passage through the strait. It also says that Iran is to conduct dialogue with Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz.
In the week ending June 26, Brent oil futures fell for the third straight week as the counter posted a weekly loss of around 10% to close at $72.60. Oil prices gained 2% Monday on supply concerns owing to an uneasy cease-fire in the Persian Gulf. Data roundup US’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June) data released on Friday showed an improvement as it was revised higher from 48.90 to 49.50 but lagged the estimate of 50. Sentiment remains depressed around historical lows. Inflation expectations for both one-year and five-ten year were lower than expected though. US’s Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.3% in June (estimate 0.2%) after stalling in April. The PCE price index rose 4.1% y-o-y (forecast 4.1%, prior 3.8%), the most since April 2023. Core prices were up 3.4% y-o-y (Forecast 3.4%, prior 3.3%), while prices were up 0.3% m-o-m (estimate 0.3%, prior 0.3%). Markets, cheered PCE Price Index rising 0.4% m-o-m as it came lower than the estimate of 0.5%. US GDP grew at 2.1% annualized rate in Q1 Vs the initial estimate of 1.6%. Dollar Index and yields At the time of writing, the Dollar Index was hovering around 101.13, down 0.2% for the day. The Japanese Yen tumbled to the lowest since 1986 against the US Dollar as the JGB yields remain negative despite the Bank of Japan hiking rates recently. Two-year US yields at 4.11% were up 2 bps, while 10-year yields at 4.38%% were largely steady. Gold ETF holdings Total known global gold ETF holdings fell to 96.72 MOz on June 26, which is the lowest since September 29, 2025. Holdings fell nearly 0.40 MOz on June 26, which marks the biggest outflow since April 17 that recorded a net outflow of 0.71 MOz. ETF holdings have declined 2.92 MOz YTD (70 tons) and are down 4.20 MOz (131 tons) since the Iran war broke out on February 28. CFTC positioning Money managers increased their bullish gold bets by 92 net-long positions to 113,010 in the week ending June 23, weekly CFTC data on futures and options show.
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