Gold price prediction: Will prices continue to fall? Key levels to watch this week
Overall, the technical outlook remains bearish to neutral. As long as prices trade below the 20-day moving average, rallies are likely to face selling pressure
Overall, the technical outlook remains bearish to neutral. As long as prices trade below the 20-day moving average, rallies are likely to face selling pressure. (AI image) Gold price prediction today Gold prices may find support in the Rs 142,800–143,200 band. They are trading with a bearish bias in the near-term, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.) Gold continues to trade under short-term bearish pressure after slipping below the 20-day Bollinger Band average. The price structure remains weak, with lower highs and lower lows indicating that sellers continue to dominate. However, prices are approaching the lower Bollinger Band, which may act as an important support zone and could trigger a short-covering bounce if buyers step in.From a Bollinger Bands perspective, the middle band (20 SMA) is placed at Rs 149,787, the upper band at Rs 158,450, and the lower band at Rs 141,125.
As long as prices remain below the middle band, the near-term bias is likely to remain negative. A sustained move above Rs 149,800 would be needed to improve sentiment, while a close below the lower band could accelerate downside momentum.Fibonacci retracement levels also highlight a crucial technical zone. Based on the recent major swing, the 23.6% retracement lies near Rs 151,000, which is expected to act as the first major resistance.On the downside, the 38.2% retracement around Rs 140,500 coincides closely with the lower Bollinger Band, making this a strong support region. A decisive break below this level could expose prices towards Rs 136,000–137,000, while the 50% retracement near Rs 132,000 remains the next major long-term support.For the week ahead, immediate support is seen at Rs 142,800–143,200, followed by Rs 141,125, which is the lower Bollinger Band. A stronger support zone lies around Rs 140,500, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 145,500, followed by the key 20-day moving average at Rs 149,800.
A sustained move above this level could open the door towards Rs 151,000–152,000, while Rs 158,450 remains the major resistance at the upper Bollinger Band.Overall, the technical outlook remains bearish to neutral. As long as prices trade below the 20-day moving average, rallies are likely to face selling pressure. However, the Rs 141,000–140,500 support zone will be critical to watch this week. Holding above this region could lead to a recovery towards Rs 149,800, whereas a breakdown below it may strengthen bearish momentum and extend the decline towards Rs 136,000–137,000.Gold continued their momentum from the previous week as markets balance renewed geopolitical tensions against expectations of a prolonged restrictive monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve. Although safe-haven demand has resurfaced following fresh attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and renewed exchanges between the US and Iran, gains in bullion continue to be capped by a stronger US dollar and elevated US Treasury yields.The latest US core PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, remained broadly in line with expectations but rose to its highest annual pace since October 2023, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains persistent.This has strengthened expectations that the Fed could keep interest rates higher for longer, with markets continuing to price in the possibility of another rate hike by the end of 2026, limiting the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.
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