Who has profited most from the war on Iran?
Nearly four months since the United States and Israel first launched strikes on Iran, sending energy prices soaring and disrupting global trade, the two sides
Nearly four months since the United States and Israel first launched strikes on Iran, sending energy prices soaring and disrupting global trade, the two sides are holding talks in Switzerland with a memorandum of understanding in place establishing a 60-day ceasefire and framework for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief and the future of the Strait of Hormuz. A lasting deal could ease the economic pain felt by businesses and consumers worldwide. But, for some companies, the conflict has proven immensely profitable. Defence contractors, oil and gas producers and investment banks are among the sectors that have seen profits soar as war and uncertainty have upended global markets. So, who exactly has profited the most? Energy firms In terms of hard, cold dollars, no one sector has benefitted more directly from the war than energy. Before the war, about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions to shipping through the narrow waterway sent crude prices soaring and triggered sharp swings in global energy markets. At one point, Brent crude briefly touched $126 a barrel, its highest price in four years. The price has since dropped to pre-war levels of about $72 per barrel. Higher prices translated into a massive cash flow windfall for some oil producers who were also able to benefit from larger price gaps between regional energy markets. Saudi Aramco’s first-quarter profits rose by 25 percent to $32.5bn compared with the same period a year earlier. The firm leveraged its 1,200km East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, to maintain exports at a capacity of seven million barrels per day, while selling oil at higher prices. British Petroleum (BP) reported first-quarter profits of $3.2bn – more than double the previous year and roundly beating analyst expectations of $2.67bn. Following regional strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, Shell’s co-owned Pearl GTL – a gas-to-liquids plant converting raw natural gas into liquid fuels – saw its Train 2 processing unit sustain severe damage. Shell estimated repairs will take a year to complete. Despite this, the group maintained a strong balance sheet, reporting profits of $6.9bn compared with about $5.6bn in the previous year’s first quarter. Despite seeing 15 percent of its global production shut down across Qatar, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, TotalEnergies reported adjusted net income of $5.4bn compared with $4.2bn in the same quarter a year prior. It maintained 210,000 barrels per day of onshore UAE production by routing exports through the Fujairah Terminal, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Rystad Energy, an independent energy research firm, analysed the cash flow of major oil companies in April, at the height of market volatility, comparing returns at under $65 per barrel pre-war against $100 per barrel during the war, and found that Saudi Aramco stood to gain the most from higher prices.
The BriefWire