China targeting half of power from non-fossil sources by 2030
Analysts said the plan’s renewable energy targets were conservative relative to the sector’s recent growth trajectory, suggesting actual renewable deployment may outpace the official goals
Analysts said the plan’s renewable energy targets were conservative relative to the sector’s recent growth trajectory, suggesting actual renewable deployment may outpace the official goals China is aiming for half of its electricity to come from non-fossil sources by 2030, up from a 42.3% target for 2025, in a new five-year plan for the energy sector. Analysts said the plan’s renewable energy targets were conservative relative to the sector’s recent growth trajectory, suggesting actual renewable deployment may outpace the official goals. Here are other key points from the plan, which was released on Thursday (June 25, 2026) 30% of China’s power generation will come from wind and solar alone by 2030, according to the plan, up from 22% in 2025.
Given that target, “emissions from the power sector might still increase during 2026-2030, particularly given that growth in electricity consumption exceeding 5% is likely to become the norm over the next five years,” said Greenpeace East Asia policy advisor Yao Zhe. However, the target is still consistent with China’s goal to peak carbon emissions by 2030, Mr. Yao said. Wind and solar will exceed 50% of installed capacity by 2030, or 2,700 gigawatts (GW), up from 47% at the end of 2025. That capacity target would imply a “significant slowdown” from the current pace of renewable deployment but still tracks with recent updates to China’s climate goals, Mr. Yao said.
“It will do little to boost confidence in investment in renewable energy, which is currently slowing down.” How is China leading the green energy sector? Both the world’s largest builder of renewable energy and the biggest carbon emitter, China, set a binding goal to cut power-sector carbon emissions intensity by more than 10% over the five years. Carbon intensity measures emissions per unit of output. The carbon intensity target is modest, said Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air analyst Qi Qin. “If total power generation increases 4-5% annually, by 2030, carbon intensity of the power sector would need to fall by roughly 17-23% just to keep total power-sector emissions from rising above the 2025 level.” China aims to expand non-pumped hydro energy storage to 300 gigawatts by 2030, up from a previously targeted 180 GW by 2027.
The plan calls for renewable hydrogen output of 2 million metric tons a year by 2030, versus a prior target of 100,000 to 200,000 tons a year by 2025. It reiterated a goal for coal consumption to peak by 2030, but gives no level. “Space-based power stations” are flagged as a future innovation area, potentially linked to supplying power for China’s planned space-based data centres for AI over the next five years.
The BriefWire