Sudan: Warnings mount over the risk of new mass atrocities
As Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces mass around the strategic city of el-Obeid, fears are growing of atrocities similar to those seen in Darfur's el-Fasher
As Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces mass around the strategic city of el-Obeid, fears are growing of atrocities similar to those seen in Darfur's el-Fasher. Could sanctions still prevent bloodshed? The next major frontline in Sudan's war is most likely the strategically important city of el-Obeid in North Kordofan. This week, the UN Security Council, several European countries and the United States flagged "the imminent risk of mass atrocities" as increasing numbers of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) troops are being deployed around the city. The assumption is largely that the RSF is preparing a ground offensive to try to retake the city, which has been under the control of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since February 2025. The war in Sudan has been ongoing since a rift between the two rival generals — Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo of the Rapid Support Forces — escalated in April 2023. Since then, fighting has divided the country into army-held territories in the north and center, including Sudan's capital, Khartoum, and RSF-controlled areas in Sudan's western Darfur region and parts of the south. Sudan, rich in oil and gold and with its vast agricultural lands, has also turned into the world's largest humanitarian and displacement crisis over the course of the war. According to the U.N., more than 14 million people have been displaced within Sudan and neighboring countries. The estimated death toll ranges between 40,000 and 250,000 people as reliable figures remain difficult to obtain due to ongoing fighting. While life in Sudan's capital Khartoum slowly returns to normal, fighting in North Kordofan continues with new atrocities feared in el-Obeid Image: El Tayeb Siddig/REUTERS What makes el-Obeid a target?
The city of el-Obeid, with a population of about 500,000 people is at the crossroads between central Sudan, Khartoum and the western Darfur region. It is therefore a key gateway for troop movements and military or humanitarian supplies. It is also home to a large SAF military base and a military airfield. "El-Obeid has been an important logistical hub for supply lines throughout its entire history," Hager Ali, a researcher at the German think tank GIGA Institute for Global and Area Studies, told DW. "If the RSF managed to retake el-Obeid, they would not only profit from its urban infrastructure and lucrative gum arabic trade but they could also use the city as a strategic forward operating base for launching drones," she said. Over the course of the war, drones have become a key weapon for both factions. According to the UN human rights agency, more than 1,000 civilians were killed in drone strikes between January and May 2026. However, with the beginning of the rainy season in July, the trajectory of combat drones becomes less predictable, Ali said. "If the RSF wants to advance towards other cities within Sudan, the most sensible course of action is to find a forward operating base that is much closer to their intended targets, just to combat the difficulties that you get in operating drones in the rainy season," Ali told DW. Sudan's humanitarian crisis is ranked the world's most forgotten crisis Image: Marwan Ali/AP Photo/dpa/picture alliance Repeating warnings Meanwhile, a spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned in a statement earlier in June that "we must not allow the horrors of el-Fasher to be repeated in el-Obeid." The Darfur city of el-Fasher has become synonymous with mass atrocities after RSF troops besieged the city for 18 months before fighters killed about 6,000 people over three days last October in what the UN and human rights observers said bore the "hallmarks of genocide." "We have every reason to fear that the RSF will continue their mass atrocities if they are allowed to take el-Obeid," Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch, told DW.
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