Iran conflict ends, but what does Pakistan gain? Economy, diplomacy in focus
Top US diplomat Marco Rubio said on Thursday that any agreement with Iran would not come at any cost, seeking to reassure America's Gulf allies
Top US diplomat Marco Rubio said on Thursday that any agreement with Iran would not come at any cost, seeking to reassure America's Gulf allies that a potential deal would not compromise their security, AFP reported. Rubio and mediator Pakistan also indicated that technical-level talks between the US and Iran are expected to resume in the coming days after an initial round held in Switzerland. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s efforts to promote dialogue and ease tensions during the Iran conflict — which disrupted Gulf security and impacted economies through rising energy prices — have strengthened its diplomatic standing on the global stage. The peace framework reached on 18 June, along with the ongoing 60-day negotiations, is partly being attributed to these diplomatic efforts. Although the conflict has strained Pakistan’s economy, experts say its push to end the war was largely driven by concerns over preventing regional spillover and preserving strong ties with the United States, CNBC reported. Pakistan shares a 900-kilometre border with Iran and is home to the world’s second-largest Shia population after Iran.
In March, following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, protests erupted in Karachi and Islamabad, leading to more than 20 deaths, according to multiple media reports. The question now confronting Islamabad is more immediate: What does Pakistan actually gain? Pakistan's economy The country recorded GDP growth of 3.7% in the last financial year, its fastest pace in four years, while remittances rose 8.2% to $30.3 billion. The fiscal deficit also narrowed sharply. “Pakistan, perhaps more than any other country outside the Middle East, was highly vulnerable to the effects of the war,” Michael Kugelman, senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, told CNBC in an email. The country not only has strong economic ties with Gulf nations, but also shares a mutual defence pact with Saudi Arabia — one it would prefer not to invoke, given its reluctance to get dragged into a broader conflict, he said. “Pakistan had an especially strong incentive in seeing the war come to an end,” Kugelman added.
Iran-Pakistan relations Relations between Iran and Pakistan deteriorated after the 1979 Iranian Revolution, when Shiism became the central ideological foundation of Iran’s government, turning religion into a major point of divergence between the two countries. After Bangladesh separated from Pakistan in 1971, and particularly during the rule of Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, who came to power in 1977, Islamabad increasingly used Islam to strengthen national identity, gradually giving it a stronger Sunni character. By contrast, post-revolution Iran prioritised promoting Shiism and protecting Shia communities both within and beyond its borders. At the same time, unlike Iran under the Islamic Republic, Pakistan maintained close strategic ties with the United States. Although Pakistan has a significant Shia population in absolute terms, it is estimated to account for only around 15–20 per cent of the total population, while the majority remain Sunni Muslims. Pakistan’s military continues to wield significant influence over the political system, and its support remains crucial for any government in power. In 2024, according to the Financial Times, Shehbaz Sharif secured military backing to sustain his administration.
The BriefWire