U.S.-Iran deal may leave Netanyahu as biggest casualty: analysts
The biggest casualty of the U.S.-Iran deal may not be Israel’s Iran strategy, but the political brand Benjamin Netanyahu spent decades building as the Israeli
The biggest casualty of the U.S.-Iran deal may not be Israel’s Iran strategy, but the political brand Benjamin Netanyahu spent decades building as the Israeli leader who could uniquely bend Washington to his will on Iran, analysts, former U.S. officials and diplomats say. Netanyahu shaped his political identity on an audacious assertion: that he alone could keep the U.S. and Israel in strategic lockstep on Iran. Cultivating Republican support, he cast himself as the only Israeli leader capable of influencing successive U.S. presidents and insisted that only sustained military pressure could contain Tehran. At the height of his power, he was described by diplomats as the “American whisperer” — the Israeli leader who could pick up the phone and ensure Washington’s strategic calculus aligned with that of Israel. No other Israeli prime minister, they note, addressed Congress as often or built such enduring political capital across the American political system. But analysts say Washington and Tehran’s interim pact to end the war that the U.S. and Israel launched in February shows how that narrative has been reversed. Rather than shaping Washington’s Iran policy, Mr. Netanyahu is now forced to accept it, as U.S. President Donald Trump pursues a settlement that increasingly treats Israeli objections as constraints. At home, the reckoning is equally stark, said former U.S. official Dennis Ross. Netanyahu is increasingly boxed in between a U.S. President intent on ending the conflict and a domestic base resistant to concessions, particularly in Lebanon, he said. Withdrawal risks political backlash while escalation risks confrontation with Washington. The war Mr. Netanyahu hoped would cement his legacy as the leader who confronted Iran may instead be remembered as the conflict that dismantled a central source of his power. Isolated abroad, constrained by his closest ally and vulnerable ahead of an autumn election, he now finds the political asset on which he built his career has become his greatest liability.
At the outset of the war with Iran, Mr. Netanyahu promised ultimate victory. He delivered neither the collapse of Iran’s ruling system, nor the defeat of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, nor safe return for residents of northern Israel. “The U.S.-Iran deal is a decisive blow to Netanyahu,” said Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu adviser. “Not only did he lose the war with Iran, he has also lost Trump as a friend. He is now isolated not only internationally, but locked in a major dispute with Trump,” he said. Netanyahu’s office did not respond to a request for comment. In a press conference this month, the Israeli premier described his relationship with Mr. Trump as one between partners who “agree many times and sometimes disagree”. There had been a systematic campaign to diminish Israel’s “huge achievements” against Iran and its proxies, he said. A White House official said Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu had a strong relationship and that Israel’s military forces had been “incredible partners” in a war that had “decimated the Iranian regime’s military capabilities”. A State Department official said the United States maintains an “iron-clad” commitment to Israel’s security, stressing that “this is not changing.” The official added that Israel retains the right to defend itself, particularly against Hezbollah, “a terrorist organisation that threatens its citizens and undermines the Lebanese government,” and cannot be expected to withdraw from Lebanon until that threat is addressed. Normalisation and regional integration remain a top priority for the Trump administration, added the official. Benjamin Netanyahu | The comeback ‘king’ Public rebukes The disagreement between the U.S. and Israeli leaders, analysts say, extends beyond personal ties to a growing divergence in goals: Mr. Trump seeks to disengage from another war in West Asia, while Mr. Netanyahu views continued pressure on Iran and its ally Hezbollah as essential to Israel’s security.
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