Lebanon's lose-lose: Is there another way out of conflict?
The new US-Iran peace deal seems to be forcing Lebanon to choose between Israel's sphere of influence or Iran's. It wants neither. But could there
The new US-Iran peace deal seems to be forcing Lebanon to choose between Israel's sphere of influence or Iran's. It wants neither. But could there be a better alternative, achieved with the help of regional diplomacy? As representatives of the Lebanese government begin another round of talks with their Israeli counterparts in Washington this week, their country finds itself in an increasingly impossible situation. In Lebanon, fighting between local militant group Hezbollah and neighboring Israel has displaced over a million people, killed thousands and caused around $1.4 billion (€1.2 billion) worth of damage. Israel says it plans to stay in what it is calling a "security buffer zone" there so its own citizens in northern Israel are safe from Hezbollah attacks. A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is currently holding and thousands of displaced residents began to try to return home Image: Mohammed Zaatari/AP Photo/picture alliance Iran, which supports Hezbollah in Lebanon, wants fighting there to stop and has made respect for Lebanese sovereignty a condition of the memorandum of understanding it signed last week with the US. The memorandum halted the Iran-US-Israel war that started in late February. Neither Israel, Hezbollah nor Lebanon were involved in those negotiations. This is why the Lebanese government sees Iran's tactic, of bringing it into the peace deal, as an infringement on its own sovereignty. Lebanon has been trying to negotiate an end to the conflict with Israel directly. The two have been discussing how to neutralize Hezbollah. Critics of the talks, another round of which is taking place in Washington between June 23 and 25, say that what Israel wants would leave Lebanon beholden to its neighbor and that if the Lebanese army were forced to confront Hezbollah directly, that could spark a new civil war in Lebanon. All of which has left Lebanon with a difficult choice: Iran or Israel? Neither option offers much chance of lasting peace or economic recovery for the small Mediterranean nation.
There have been five rounds of direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, with the first taking place in April and the fifth happening this week Image: Rod Lamkey/AP Photo/picture alliance A better alternative Michael Young, a senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, believes there might be an alternative. In a June 18 commentary, he wrote about the potential of a solution first presented by Egyptian diplomats late last year. The Egyptian proposal, or framework, has been getting increasing support from other countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey as well as Pakistan, in a mediator role. The countries involved, Young writes, want neither Iran nor Israel to dominate the region. The Egyptian-backed framework "outlines a three-phase process of 'organized, gradual transition'," for Hezbollah, Young explains. This includes ending the group's cross-border activities, integrating Hezbollah fighters into Lebanon's army and Hezbollah social services into the Lebanese state. The end result would be the "transformation of Hezbollah into an exclusively political and civilian entity." At the same time, the framework also requires a shift in the way Lebanese politics work, moving them from a sectarian system based on set roles for certain demographics — for example, Lebanon's prime minister is always a Sunni Muslim, the president a Maronite Christian and the speaker of parliament, a Shiite Muslim — to a more fluid, more equal power-sharing system. "It makes sense for Lebanon's president and prime minister to embrace this possibility and momentarily abandon their insistence that Iran should have no say in whatever affects Lebanon," Young suggests. As other observers havepointed out, that requires moving beyond black-and-white thinking that requires Lebanon to submit to either Iran or Israel. Could the plan work? In the past, similar plans — especially those aimed at changing Lebanese politics — have come to nothing. But thanks to the Iran war, the whole Middle East is changing and that might make such a proposal more plausible, its advocates argue.
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