Zuckerberg bets on Meta entering prediction markets with a new app to challenge Polymarket, Kalshi: Report
Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg has personally directed a team at the company to develop a standalone prediction markets app called Arena, in a move
Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg has personally directed a team at the company to develop a standalone prediction markets app called Arena, in a move that signals his ambitions to capture a share of a market that drew over $130 billion in trades this year alone, the New York Times reported. What Is Meta's Arena App and How Will It Work? Mark Zuckerberg recently dispatched a small internal team to build a smartphone application modelled on prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, the New York Times reported, citing two employees with knowledge of the matter. Also Read | Meta is building a new AI pendant designed to record your daily conversations Unlike Polymarket and Kalshi, where users wager real money, Arena would initially operate on a video game-style points system, according to one of the people cited by the NYT. The use of real money betting had not been ruled out for a later stage, the report added. The Arena app by Meta would function independently from Meta's existing suite of social networking platforms, which includes Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger.
Zuckerberg Sees Prediction Markets as the Next Big Social Behaviour Shift The NYT described the Arena project as experimental but characterised by insiders as a top priority. It forms part of a broader strategy by Zuckerberg to build new applications around emerging social behaviours on the internet. Meta's existing platforms collectively attract more than 3.56 billion daily visitors, a figure that has prompted questions internally about whether the company's core apps have reached saturation point. That concern has pushed Meta executives to look beyond Facebook and Instagram for growth. Also Read | Meta tracked employee keystrokes to train AI. Then came the data leak Arena is one of several new standalone apps Meta is currently developing. Another, called Meta Photos, is also in the works and would use artificial intelligence to generate new forms of media, the NYT reported. A $130 Billion Market That Everyone Wants a Piece Of Prediction markets have grown from a niche internet curiosity into a mainstream cultural phenomenon. Polymarket and Kalshi together recorded approximately $50 billion in combined trades in 2025.
In 2026, that figure has already surpassed $130 billion, according to the NYT. The commercial appeal is straightforward: prediction market operators collect a fee on every transaction, making the model a potentially significant source of revenue. The sector has attracted interest from traditional gambling platforms such as FanDuel and DraftKings, cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, and Trump Media and Technology Group, which has announced its own prediction market plans. Meta Tried This Before and Shut It Down This is not Mark Zuckerberg's first attempt in this space. In 2020, Meta launched Forecast, a crowdsourced prediction market app built around public guesses about the early trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. The app used a points-based system and was positioned as a knowledge-sharing tool. Meta shut it down in 2022 without it gaining meaningful traction. Meta has a broader history of difficulty with standalone apps. A dedicated internal unit called New Product Experimentation, launched in 2019, produced apps focused on podcasts, travel, music, and matchmaking. Few found an audience, according to three people familiar with the projects cited by the NYT.
The BriefWire