Will Nifty hit 25,000 this month? Key levels to watch in the week ahead
Nifty eyes a potential up move following a supportive hammer candle formation, though a dash to 25,000 looks uncertain. While short-term oscillators lean lower, Geojit
Nifty eyes a potential up move following a supportive hammer candle formation, though a dash to 25,000 looks uncertain. While short-term oscillators lean lower, Geojit Investment’s chief market strategist Anand James highlights key immediate targets at 24,300–24,600, advising caution with a strict downside support watch at 23,800.Edited excerpts from a chat:After two consecutive and steady weekly gains, what are the targets that you would have for the week ahead for Nifty? Can we expect 25,000 by the end of this month?Oscillators are all seen turning lower, but that is not surprising given the downsided gapped opening that followed a 50day spree of higher close. There are no clear signals towards a dash to 25,000, but we remain optimistic about an up move, given a hammer candle formation on Friday. We will go in next week with hopes of 24300-600, but also with eyes on 23800 on the side of caution.The crash in IT stocks on Friday has now left the Nifty IT index to 3-year lows while heavyweight stocks are at 5-year lows. What are the charts indicating for Monday's session?The Nifty IT index remains technically weak despite Friday’s intraday recovery, and the charts suggest caution for Monday’s session.On the monthly chart, the index is now hovering close to a crucial horizontal support zone near 26,500-27,000, which has historically acted as a demand base. However, the sustained decline and fresh 3-year lows indicate that selling pressure remains dominant.Momentum indicators reinforce this weakness. The weekly RSI is hovering near the oversold region, reflecting stretched downside conditions but not yet a decisive reversal signal. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram, although still in negative territory, is showing signs of losing downside momentum, hinting at a possible near-term pause or mild pullback.Friday’s price action marked by a gap-down opening followed by partial recovery in most index heavyweights, except Infosys, suggests short-covering rather than fresh buying interest.
This keeps the broader trend fragile, keeping in mind the sharp correction on Friday, triggered by Accenture’s lower FY26 growth guidance, continues to weigh on sentiment and this could cap any immediate upside.Outlook for Monday remains range-bound with a weak bias, as the index continues to hover near a critical support zone; a decisive break below this level could trigger further downside, while any bounce is likely to face resistance at recent breakdown levels.The defence index, on the other hand, hit a fresh 52-week high on Friday amid sustained buying on positive news flow. How strong is the momentum?The momentum in the defence index appears strong and improving, backed by both price structure and momentum indicators.From a price-action perspective, the index has been trading within a narrowing wedge and has now pushed towards the upper boundary, suggesting volatility compression followed by directional expansion. This is reinforced by a multi-week range breakout on the upside, indicating fresh participation and a continuation of the broader uptrend. On the momentum front, the weekly MACD has given a bullish signal crossover, which is significant given the higher timeframe. This typically reflects early-stage trend acceleration rather than exhaustion, especially after a consolidation phase. The MACD histogram also appears to be stabilizing after a mild contraction, hinting at renewed upward momentum. Additionally, the index sustaining above key breakout zones around the recent range highs strengthens the case for trend persistence. The steady higher highs formation visible on the chart further confirms underlying demand.Stocks such as Paras Defence, MTAR Technologies, Data Patterns, and Apollo have been gaining since the beginning of this month. In contrast, major players like BEL, BDL, Mazagon Dock, Cochin Shipyard, and GRSE have seen an uptick only since the beginning of this week and now appear to be attempting a reversal, which could gain traction in the coming weeks leading the index towards 9880-10000 region.Transformers & Rectifiers (India) shares jumped 10% on Friday.
The BriefWire