Months of war fundamentally change Iran-Gulf ties
The conflict in the Middle East has altered the strategic landscape between Tehran and Gulf states. Trust is lacking, but at the same time, both
The conflict in the Middle East has altered the strategic landscape between Tehran and Gulf states. Trust is lacking, but at the same time, both sides recognize that they remain dependent on one another. There is relief in the Gulf as the conflict between the US and Iran has entered a negotiation phase following nearly four months of fighting. Up until a ceasefire in April, Iran repeatedly fired on US military installations along with civilian and energy infrastructure in Gulf states. In the aftermath of the conflict, Gulf states are looking at Iran in a new light, while at the same time, confidence in the US security umbrella in the region is waning. From Tehran, there have been no signs of a fundamental change in course as tensions enter a new phase with the 60-day negotiation window with the United States having opened after the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed Wednesday night. The Iranian leadership emphasizes that it has weathered the war politically and continues to possess effective leverage. Reuters news agency reports, citing diplomats, analysts and sources from the Gulf states, that while Iran has emerged from the war economically and militarily weakened, it remains politically intact. Iran has preserved its political structures and still has the ability to exert pressure on the Gulf states and global energy flows. The message from Tehran is thus clear: Iran continues to see itself as a regional power that the Gulf states will have to reckon with in the future.
Shipowners hope Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Middle East seeks a climb-down from confrontation The consequences for Gulf states and Iran over the past few months point to niether side having interest in another military escalation. At the same time, the war has significantly deepened mutual mistrust. However, for the Gulf states, Iran remains a power factor they must learn to live with. "Fundamentally, this conflict has severely damaged—if not destroyed—the process of mutual rapprochement," said Sebastian Sons, a Gulf state expert at the Bonn, Germany-based think tank Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO). Saudi Arabia's rapprochement with Tehran, in particular, has suffered a setback. "Frustration with Iran has grown significantly," Sons told DW. Conrad Schetter, a peace and conflict researcher at the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies (BICC), told DW that despite distrust, relations between Gulf states and Tehran will not be severed. "These shared interests will ensure that relations do not completely break down, despite all the conflicts," Schetter said. He cited a shared interest in economic prosperity and stable political conditions as unifying factors. Iran flexes its regional power Schetter said Iranian attacks on Gulf states were part of Tehran's strategy to demonstrate "without us, the region will not function. The attacks have shown that oil and gas exports, as well as trade and tourism, remain vulnerable." Analyst Sons added that Gulf states were a "comparatively easy target" for Iran.
The BriefWire