Southwest monsoon on pause: Why rainfall has slowed; when Mumbai may get rain
India's southwest monsoon - which made its onset over Kerala on June 4, arriving three days later than its usual date and five days after
India's southwest monsoon - which made its onset over Kerala on June 4, arriving three days later than its usual date and five days after the IMD's forecast - has recorded rainfall significantly below normal. India received 38% less rainfall than the long-term average between June 1 and June 17, raising concerns over a prolonged lull. The southwest monsoon - which accounts for over 70% of the country's annual rainfall, gradually advanced across several regions during the first week of June. However, its progress stalled soon afterwards, with rainfall activity weakening across the country. What is preventing the monsoon from advancing further? Meteorologists say the lack of a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal has stalled the monsoon's movement. “Currently, there is no weather system over the Bay of Bengal.
There needs to be a low-pressure area or a depression to give the monsoon a push in the eastern parts of the country. It is also needed to pull the monsoon across the western coast from the Arabian Sea,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president at private weather forecaster Skymet, as quoted by Hindustan Times. He added that monsoon activity is likely to resume after June 22 or 23. “A pressure area is likely to develop during the time in Central Bay of Bengal,” he said, adding that Mumbai may not receive the monsoon until around June 25. When is the monsoon expected to revive? Forecasters expect weather conditions to become more favourable during the latter half of June. Increased thunderstorm activity is likely between June 22 and June 28 across interior Karnataka, southern Tamil Nadu and parts of the Western Ghats.
Rainfall is also expected to intensify along the Kerala and Karnataka coastlines, with wet conditions gradually extending northwards towards Mumbai. Could early July bring stronger monsoon activity? A more pronounced revival is anticipated between June 29 and July 5. During this period, stronger monsoon currents may trigger heavy rainfall over the Western Ghats of southern Kerala and the Konkan region before spreading further inland. View full Image View full Image Increased thunderstorm activity is likely between June 22 and June 28 across interior Karnataka, southern Tamil Nadu and parts of the Western Ghats. Weather experts remain optimistic that the expected formation of a pressure system over the Bay of Bengal could help restore momentum to the monsoon and improve rainfall distribution across the country in the coming weeks.
The BriefWire