Iran-US peace deal: Tehran or Trump — who gained more? ‘Iran may give up…’

Published 19 June 2026 · india

The United States has ‘conceded’ to Iran's demands, an expert said, analysing the interim Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on Wednesday, June 18 between the

The United States has ‘conceded’ to Iran's demands, an expert said, analysing the interim Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on Wednesday, June 18 between the US and Iran to end the war. But there's more than what appears on the surface. US-Iran MoU vs ‘final deal’ The text of the MoU signed by the US and Iran, published by several media outlets, suggests that while Iran has been given some major economic relief, the end of the war depends on the "final deal" — which both parties have committed to achieving within 60 days. This period is "extendable by mutual consent," the MoU states. Iran is widely seen as the top beneficiary of the interim US-Iran deal, with the MoU recognising Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, removal of US naval blockade, terminating sanctions, waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil and ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. Quick answers to key questions • 5 QUESTIONS 1 What are the main benefits of the interim MoU signed between the US and Iran? ⌵ The interim MoU provides Iran with major economic relief by lifting maritime blockades, recognizing its control over the Strait of Hormuz, and allowing for the export of Iranian crude oil, while aiming to end the war in Lebanon. 2 Why is Iran considered the top beneficiary of the Iran-US peace deal? ⌵ Experts believe Iran benefits significantly due to the economic relief from sanctions, the ability to manage the Strait of Hormuz, and potential access to billions in reconstruction funds dependent on future negotiations. 3 What will the 60-day negotiation period focus on regarding Iran's nuclear program? ⌵ The 60-day negotiation period will focus on key discussions about Iran's uranium enrichment limits, verification mechanisms, and broader terms to ensure compliance with the final deal. 4 How does the MoU address Israel's concerns regarding Iran's regional influence? ⌵ The MoU includes expectations for Iran to restrain Hezbollah's actions in Lebanon and reduce escalations, which are critical concerns for Israel in the context of regional security. 5 Should Iran make concessions on its nuclear program as part of the negotiations? ⌵ While experts suggest Iran may concede some aspects, such as allowing monitoring by the IAEA, the extent of concessions will depend on the assurance that the US fulfills its promises regarding sanctions relief.

While the MoU lays out the contours of the final deal, the ultimate success depends on negotiations over the next 60 days, when more important discussions will take place, including those on Iran's nuclear programme and the procedures for the release of Iran's frozen funds and assets. So, what does this MoU really mean for the US, Iran and Israel, and who gains more from this interim framework? View full Image View full Image Credit: New York Times, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) What does this Iran-US MoU really mean? It's about two things — ending the war on all the fronts (including Lebanon), and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, said Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow at the West Asia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The talks on the nuclear deal will take place in the next phase. The MoU remains silent on the Iranian missile program and the scope of sanctions relief and financial support for Iran. It, however, covers Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. There are many details to be negotiated. According to Ray Takeyh, Hasib J Sabbagh,senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Iran and the US have agreed to lift their blockades on maritime traffic through the Persian Gulf and then spend the next two months sorting out everything else. "It is hard to see how this timetable is sustainable," he said. Takeyh notes that the nuclear issue is not part of the agreement but Israel’s conduct in Lebanon is. "...the removal of all sanctions on Iran and release of billions of dollars in frozen funds is of grave concern to Israelis," said Elliott Abrams, another senior fellow at CFR. "That could mean there are more resources available for Iran’s proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq because the agreement says nothing to stop this. It also remains silent on the Iranian missile program, which the recent war showed is extremely dangerous for Israel," Elliott Abrams said. Has Iran really won? Experts believe that the US did not achieve “total surrender”, regime change or major concessions from Iran. Moreover, the MoU acknowledges Iran's right to manage the Strait of Hormuz and allows Iran to export oil.