Scientists Warn El Nino Could Persist Into 2027, Raising Food And Inflation Risks
Scientists Warn El Nino Could Persist Into 2027, Raising Food And Inflation Risks Published By Last Updated: June 18, 2026, 16:00 IST A potentially very
Scientists Warn El Nino Could Persist Into 2027, Raising Food And Inflation Risks Published By Last Updated: June 18, 2026, 16:00 IST A potentially very strong El Niño could disrupt rainfall, agriculture and food supplies as higher fertiliser costs linked to the US-Iran war already cloud the global crop outlook. Rapid Read El Nino occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean warm unusually (PTI) A strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific could continue affecting weather, agriculture and food prices into 2027, with scientists and economists warning of consequences ranging from droughts and floods to higher inflation and pressure on vulnerable economies. Citing the US Climate Prediction Center’s June 8 projections, Fitch Ratings said there was a 96 per cent chance that El Niño would continue through December 2026-February 2027. The warning comes as global agriculture is already facing uncertainty from higher fertiliser prices and supply disruptions linked to the US-Iran war. Fitch said the combination of a prolonged El Niño and existing pressure on crop production could push up internationally traded food prices and affect inflation even in highly rated sovereign economies. “The formation of an El Niño weather phenomenon that is set to persist into early 2027 raises the risk of economic disruption in a range of sovereigns," the Fitch report said. How Powerful Could This El Niño Become? El Niño develops when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm, altering atmospheric circulation and disrupting rainfall and temperature patterns around the world. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecast for November 2026-January 2027 shows widespread warming across the tropical Pacific. Large areas could record sea surface temperatures more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal, while some individual model outputs show even higher anomalies in parts of the ocean. The strength of an El Niño, however, is usually assessed using average temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific.
An anomaly of between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius is generally classified as strong, while warming of 2 degrees Celsius or more is often described as very strong or “super" El Niño. The projections therefore point to the possibility of an exceptionally powerful event, although forecasts this far in advance remain uncertain. Its eventual strength will depend on how warming develops across the Niño 3.4 region over the coming months. Why The Impact Could Last Into 2027 El Niño events often peak near the end of a calendar year, but their effects can continue even after ocean temperatures begin to ease. Changes in rainfall, soil moisture, reservoirs, crop cycles and marine ecosystems may persist for months. Drought can reduce planting and yields, while excessive rainfall and flooding can damage crops, infrastructure and supply networks. Marine heatwaves linked to unusually warm waters can also contribute to coral bleaching and disrupt fisheries. The timing is especially significant because long-term climate change has already raised global temperatures. A major El Niño developing against this warmer background could intensify heatwaves, marine warming and other weather extremes. How Food Prices And Inflation Could Be Hit El Niño can suppress rainfall in some major agricultural regions while bringing excessive rain to others. Both outcomes can damage crops, reduce export supplies and drive up global commodity prices. That risk is emerging while farmers are already confronting higher fertiliser costs caused by supply disruption associated with the West Asia conflict. “Global crop yields already face uncertainty due to higher fertiliser prices on supply disruption associated with the US-Iran war. Sustained shortages could amplify risks to globally traded food commodity prices posed by an El Nino phenomenon, potentially affecting inflation prospects even in highly rated sovereigns," Fitch said. Food-importing countries could be particularly exposed if crop losses coincide with elevated fertiliser, transport and energy costs.
Higher food prices may also force governments to increase subsidies and welfare spending, while central banks could face pressure to keep interest rates elevated. Why Vulnerable Countries Face Greater Risk Fitch said environmental conditions that hamper agriculture or wider economic activity could weaken the credit profiles of lower-rated sovereigns, particularly those in the “B" category or below. These countries often have limited access to international capital markets and less financial room to respond to a crisis. A severe weather shock could increase spending on food imports, relief and reconstruction at a time when government revenue and economic growth are under pressure. The resulting strain may widen fiscal deficits, increase debt and deplete foreign exchange reserves. Fitch said it would be unlikely to change a country’s rating solely because of El Niño. However, the phenomenon could influence ratings if its economic effects were reflected in growth, inflation, government finances or external liquidity. “Fitch is unlikely to link rating actions directly to El Nino unless the effects are clearly reflected in credit metrics, but related environmental stresses could intensify fiscal, growth, inflation and external liquidity pressures for sovereigns that are more vulnerable," the ratings agency said. Not every region will necessarily suffer. Some areas may receive rainfall that improves water availability, crop yields and food production. What El Niño Could Mean For India For India, El Niño is closely watched because of its potential influence on the southwest monsoon, which supports agriculture, reservoirs and rural incomes. The phenomenon has historically been associated with weaker monsoon circulation and an increased risk of below-normal rainfall. Several drought years have coincided with El Niño, although the relationship is not automatic and other oceanic and atmospheric factors can alter the outcome. A prolonged and powerful event could increase the risk of uneven rainfall, extended dry spells and higher temperatures across parts of South Asia.
The consequences may include pressure on rain-fed crops, irrigation supplies, hydropower generation and drinking-water availability. Agricultural losses could also raise prices of cereals, pulses, vegetables and other essential items. The precise effect on India will depend on the location of Pacific warming, conditions in the Indian Ocean and other atmospheric systems influencing the monsoon. What Other Regions Could Face Forecasters will also monitor the possibility of drier conditions and wildfire risks in parts of Australia and Southeast Asia, along with heavier rainfall and flooding in western South America. El Niño can affect tropical cyclone activity, fisheries and marine ecosystems across the Pacific. Weather-related disruptions may also hit major producers of grains, edible oils, coffee, cocoa and other agricultural commodities. The full scale of the threat will become clearer as the event develops. For now, the central questions are how strong it will become, where the most severe effects will occur and whether governments facing high debt, expensive food and supply disruptions are prepared for a climate shock that could continue into 2027. News18 Newsletter Handpicked stories, in your inbox A newsletter with the best of our journalism submit About the Author Karishma Jain Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at News18.com, writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follo... Read More First Published: June 18, 2026, 16:00 IST News india Scientists Warn El Nino Could Persist Into 2027, Raising Food And Inflation Risks Disclaimer: Comments reflect users’ views, not News18’s. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy Loading comments...
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