Scientists Warn El Nino Could Persist Into 2027, Raising Food And Inflation Risks

Published 18 June 2026 · finance

Scientists Warn El Nino Could Persist Into 2027, Raising Food And Inflation Risks Published By Last Updated: June 18, 2026, 16:00 IST A potentially very

Scientists Warn El Nino Could Persist Into 2027, Raising Food And Inflation Risks Published By Last Updated: June 18, 2026, 16:00 IST A potentially very strong El Niño could disrupt rainfall, agriculture and food supplies as higher fertiliser costs linked to the US-Iran war already cloud the global crop outlook. Rapid Read El Nino occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean warm unusually (PTI) A strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific could continue affecting weather, agriculture and food prices into 2027, with scientists and economists warning of consequences ranging from droughts and floods to higher inflation and pressure on vulnerable economies. Citing the US Climate Prediction Center’s June 8 projections, Fitch Ratings said there was a 96 per cent chance that El Niño would continue through December 2026-February 2027. The warning comes as global agriculture is already facing uncertainty from higher fertiliser prices and supply disruptions linked to the US-Iran war. Fitch said the combination of a prolonged El Niño and existing pressure on crop production could push up internationally traded food prices and affect inflation even in highly rated sovereign economies. “The formation of an El Niño weather phenomenon that is set to persist into early 2027 raises the risk of economic disruption in a range of sovereigns," the Fitch report said. How Powerful Could This El Niño Become? El Niño develops when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm, altering atmospheric circulation and disrupting rainfall and temperature patterns around the world. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecast for November 2026-January 2027 shows widespread warming across the tropical Pacific. Large areas could record sea surface temperatures more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal, while some individual model outputs show even higher anomalies in parts of the ocean. The strength of an El Niño, however, is usually assessed using average temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific.

An anomaly of between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius is generally classified as strong, while warming of 2 degrees Celsius or more is often described as very strong or “super" El Niño. The projections therefore point to the possibility of an exceptionally powerful event, although forecasts this far in advance remain uncertain. Its eventual strength will depend on how warming develops across the Niño 3.4 region over the coming months. Why The Impact Could Last Into 2027 El Niño events often peak near the end of a calendar year, but their effects can continue even after ocean temperatures begin to ease. Changes in rainfall, soil moisture, reservoirs, crop cycles and marine ecosystems may persist for months. Drought can reduce planting and yields, while excessive rainfall and flooding can damage crops, infrastructure and supply networks. Marine heatwaves linked to unusually warm waters can also contribute to coral bleaching and disrupt fisheries. The timing is especially significant because long-term climate change has already raised global temperatures. A major El Niño developing against this warmer background could intensify heatwaves, marine warming and other weather extremes. How Food Prices And Inflation Could Be Hit El Niño can suppress rainfall in some major agricultural regions while bringing excessive rain to others. Both outcomes can damage crops, reduce export supplies and drive up global commodity prices. That risk is emerging while farmers are already confronting higher fertiliser costs caused by supply disruption associated with the West Asia conflict. “Global crop yields already face uncertainty due to higher fertiliser prices on supply disruption associated with the US-Iran war. Sustained shortages could amplify risks to globally traded food commodity prices posed by an El Nino phenomenon, potentially affecting inflation prospects even in highly rated sovereigns," Fitch said. Food-importing countries could be particularly exposed if crop losses coincide with elevated fertiliser, transport and energy costs.