Vedanta Aluminium shares jump over 3% after Citi, Kotak initiate with Buy, see up to 29% upside. Here’s why

Published 18 June 2026 · finance

Shares of Vedanta Aluminium Metal rallied over 3% to their day's high of Rs 480 on the BSE on Thursday after Citi and Kotak Institutional

Shares of Vedanta Aluminium Metal rallied over 3% to their day's high of Rs 480 on the BSE on Thursday after Citi and Kotak Institutional Equities initiated coverage on the stock with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 560 and 600, respectively. International brokerage Citi named the newly-listed stock its top Indian metals pick.While Citi projects 20% upside, Kotak with a higher target forecasts an upside of 29% from current levels. The gains come after the stock dropped nearly 11% in just three days since listing. The latest target price implies an upside potential of more than 20% from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 465.36 on the NSE.Citi listed key drivers for its bullish call, which include a positive aluminium outlook, growth potential (Balco expansion, Vedanta Aluminium debottlenecking), cost focus (higher captive alumina, domestic bauxite and captive coal), and improving leverage. It expects the company to have a net cash position by FY28. Expecting aluminium prices to hover around $3,400 in FY27-28, Citi explained that every $100 per ton change in LME can impact the company’s EBITDA by 4-5.5%, and subsequently fair value by nearly Rs 30 per share.

“We open a 90-D positive CW: Our commodities team believes the aluminium market is in deficit and will draw inventories sharply over the next 3-6 months, driving prices up 15-20% to $4,000 per ton in base case,” it added.Kotak on Vedanta Aluminium sharesKotak Institutional Equities cited the company's strong positioning as a pure-play aluminium producer. The brokerage believes Vedanta Aluminium is well placed to benefit from sector-leading volume growth, accelerating backward integration and a supportive industry environment. Capacity additions are expected to drive a volume CAGR of around 6% between FY2026 and FY2029, while greater integration across bauxite and coal mines is likely to significantly improve cost competitiveness.Kotak estimates that the company's backward integration initiatives could reduce costs by nearly $150 per tonne, providing a meaningful boost to profitability. It also expects a structural deficit in the global aluminium market and sustained elevated aluminium prices to support earnings growth over the medium term.The brokerage further highlighted that strong free cash flow generation should enable rapid deleveraging of the balance sheet while creating room for higher shareholder returns.How Vedanta Aluminium shares have been performing?Four Vedanta Group companies that spun out from Vedanta after the demerger made their much-awaited market debut on Monday, following which the shares of aluminium, iron and steel as well as oil and gas tumbled while those of the power business soared in three days.