Strait of Hormuz reopens: But can ships’ safety be assured?
Shipping operators and insurers prefer to wait and watch from a distance for now. US President Donald Trump was jubilant when he announced a preliminary
Shipping operators and insurers prefer to wait and watch from a distance for now. US President Donald Trump was jubilant when he announced a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war that has brought about the worst energy crisis of modern history – and which has closed the Strait of Hormuz to world shipping. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Trump wrote in his Truth Social post on Sunday. Oil prices tumbled. But three days after the agreement was announced by both Iran and the US, marine traffic has not picked up in the narrow yet vital waterway, ship tracking data shows. Shipping companies and insurance underwriters appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach before deeming transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and the broader ceasefire, sufficiently stable. So, what are the major challenges as the Strait of Hormuz reopens? What’s happening in Hormuz? Before the war began, between 120 and 140 ships travelled through the strait each day, about half of them oil tankers carrying some 20 million barrels of oil between them. Iran quickly closed the strait following the start of US-Israeli bombing at the end of February, and the US began a corresponding naval blockade of Iranian ports a few weeks later. Since the preliminary deal was announced on Sunday, only seven ships have passed through, according to shipping monitor MarineTraffic. Among these were a few tankers carrying Iranian oil which crossed the US blockade line in the Strait of Hormuz – Iran’s “first crude oil exports in two months”, the marine shipping monitor TankerTrackers reported on Wednesday. More than 550 ships remain stranded on either side of the strait, waiting to transit the Gulf waters. While Trump insists that the strait is “wide open” for traffic, Iranian officials have reiterated that any transit through it must still be coordinated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and follow a route close to the Iranian coastline. Why isn’t the traffic picking up? Besides fears of mines in the strait, which the US says will be cleared now, shipping operators are still wary that hostilities could kick off again at any time.
The unprecedented exchange of missiles and armed drones across the Gulf in recent weeks has heightened security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, both the US and Iran have attacked and fired upon commercial vessels in the waterway that is only 33km (20 miles) wide at its narrowest point. Last week, the US military attacked at least three commercial vessels, killing three Indian sailors in one attack. Then, just one day before the deal was announced, the US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement that its naval blockade had redirected 142 commercial ships that complied and disabled nine vessels that did not comply. Even though negotiations for a final peace deal are due to begin following a ceremonial signing in Switzerland on Friday, concerns remain that commercial shipping could still be caught in the crossfire. “It will take more than just a political agreement before we see a normalisation, hence the reason we haven’t seen any material changes until now in Hormuz if looking at AIS-trackers,” said Haider Anjum, a senior equity analyst at Jyske Bank, referring to the transponders ships use to transmit their locations. “Shipowners need to see actual physical security and stability over a longer period,” he told Al Jazeera. “We must see a sustained period with no incidents before shipowners and insurers will consider that the risk has de-escalated enough.” This could take around four months, he added. Shipping operators’ main concerns include the following Mines The threat of underwater mines has plagued the Strait of Hormuz traffic for some time. Earlier in the war, Iran threatened that it would mine the waterway, but it has never confirmed whether or not it did this. When the IRGC first released a map of the safe route ships it approves for passage can pass, it mentioned that this would avoid “potential” mines. The US has claimed mines are a risk and said it specifically targeted Iranian mine-laying boats during the conflict. On June 2, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing that Iran had “mined large segments of Hormuz – international waters”, without elaborating.
The BriefWire