Does the Iran war diminish US superpower status?
The US is still unrivaled in its ability to project military strength around the world, but Iran's success in blocking the Strait of Hormuz has
The US is still unrivaled in its ability to project military strength around the world, but Iran's success in blocking the Strait of Hormuz has raised tough question on America's role as protector of global trade. "Ships of the World, start your engines," US President Donald Trump said while announcing a deal with Iran to end the conflict he launched along with Israel more than four months ago, The online post on Sunday also saw Trump "fully authorize" the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. "Let the oil flow!" he added. The US and Iran are due to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in Geneva later this week. With the details still under wraps, Trump later said Hormuz would "fully reopen" only after the deal is signed. US, Iran announce initial 'peace deal' To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video But unconfirmed reports on the MoU published in pro-regime Iranian media claim that Tehran's future role in Hormuz is still up for negotiation. Fars news agency reported that "Iranian-Omani sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz" had been added to negotiations at the last minute, while claiming that the US had "accepted" that fees would be paid to Iran. When asked for clarification on Monday, US Vice President JD Vance told CNBC news outlet that Washington's "expectation is that the strait is going to be opened in a toll-free way for the long term," adding, "that's the sort of thing that we're going to figure out in these technical negotiations." Exposing the limits of US power Opacity aside, it is clear that the US is not able to dictate the terms regarding the Strait of Hormuz to Iran, despite Washington's overwhelming military strength. Moreover, Iran's ability to use drones, mines and small boats to shut down free movement of shipping has shed uncomfortable light on the role of US power in protecting freedom of navigation and ensuring free trade.
"The Iran war showed America's exceptional military prowess — and its inability to convert those capabilities into anything resembling strategic victory," said Rebecca Lissner, senior fellow for US foreign policy and director of the Future of American Strategy Initiative at the US Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). "This is a blow to America's image as a global superpower and undercuts its status as a guarantor of freedom of navigation. This war has left the United States in a weaker position than when the war began," she told DW. Iran's new leverage Trump laid out an array of objectives when launching the war, including the "annihilation" of Iran's conventional navy. This one objective, at least, seems to have been met — the Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS) has assessed that "Iran lost the majority of its naval capability in less than 10 days." But Iran didn't need a conventional navy to hold shipping in Hormuz hostage. And its drone-based asymmetric strikes on Gulf energy facilities proved an effective deterrence against US escalation. Tehran's proxies in Yemen and Lebanon also remain a threat. The US-Israeli airstrikes have also taken out much of the Islamic Republic's leadership and degraded its military. At the same time, the conflict has made life much harder for ordinary Iranians, who faced a brutal crackdown for protesting against the regime just weeks before the war. Trump has not mentioned their fate, nor the idea of "regime change" since the first weeks of the conflict. And regionally, ties between Tehran and neighboring Gulf states have also been degraded, portending protracted regional instability. Gulf states have also been left questioning the reliability of the US security umbrella after their civilian infrastructure and energy facilities were left vulnerable. Why Saudi Arabia is redrawing its global alliances To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Who holds the keys to Hormuz?
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