What to expect from the strongest El Nino in over a century
Warnings of a mighty El Nino weather pattern this year could bring drought, flooding and extreme heat. Can we prepare for the worst of it?
Warnings of a mighty El Nino weather pattern this year could bring drought, flooding and extreme heat. Can we prepare for the worst of it? A potentially powerful El Nino developing in the Pacific Ocean could reshape weather patterns around the world in the coming weeks. Forecasters that warn this could be among the strongest El Nino events on record. There’s "real potential for the strongest El Nino event in 140 years," said Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the State University of New York at Albany. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects El Nino conditions to emerge soon and continue at least into winter. Depending on its strength and duration, the climate phenomenon could trigger drought, flooding, heat waves and disruptions to food and water supplies in multiple regions. "The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is," United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. "El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world." What is El Nino? El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern that occurs every two to seven years. It begins when trade winds over the tropical Pacific weaken, allowing warm water to accumulate in the Pacific Ocean. Although the area of warming is about the size of the continental United States and only takes place in one region, its effects can be felt around the world. "By changing the tropical atmosphere, you can then change the atmosphere further away across the mid-latitudes, which is why we care about it so much, even though we're thousands and thousands of miles away potentially," NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Director Gavin Schmidt told DW.
That sets off a global chain reaction, with El Nino being "the first atmospheric domino to fall," he said. What impacts are expected on the climate? Those reactions vary dramatically from region to region. In some places, that means an increased risk of drought; in others, flooding. Parts of Central America, Asia, Africa and Australia often become hotter and drier during El Nino years. The resulting water shortages can affect agriculture, hydropower generation and drinking water supplies. In Honduras, authorities estimate that around 75 municipalities could face severe drought conditions. Tegucigalpa, the country's capital, has already declared a water emergency. In other parts of the world, the risks are reversed. Along parts of South America's Pacific coast, El Nino can bring torrential rainfall and destructive flooding. The consequences can persist long after the rain stops or reservoirs run dry. El Nino has been associated with crop failures and economic losses potentially running into the trillions. During the 2015-2016 El Nino, poor harvests left millions of people around the world in need of food assistance. Wildfires are also a growing concern. Scientists warn that El Nino is likely to increase the risk of severe heat and drought conditions that fuel fires across Australia, Canada, the United States and the Amazon rainforest. A water level marker stands in a dried-out reservoir in Bogota, Colombia, in 2024, as El Nino drove water levels critically low Image: Fernando Vergara/picture alliance/dpa Storms, reefs and the Atlantic hurricane season El Nino plays a big role in tropical storm activity.
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