El Nino threatens livelihoods in Southeast Asia
Hotter, drier weather is impeding rice and palm-oil production as households across Southeast Asia struggle with higher fuel, food and transport costs. Southeast Asia is
Hotter, drier weather is impeding rice and palm-oil production as households across Southeast Asia struggle with higher fuel, food and transport costs. Southeast Asia is bracing for an extreme El Nino weather pattern as households and governments in the region are struggling to respond to higher energy, transport and food bills linked to the Iran war. The UN weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), expects the El Nino conditions to emerge before August and continue until at least November. This means surface waters in large parts of the Pacific Ocean will warm up more than usual, and a disruption in the usual east-to-west wind pattern is likely to bring more heat to central and eastern Pacific. Southeast Asia is entering the months when monsoon rains usually replenish water reservoirs, cool overheated cities and inundate the fields ahead of the next planting season. However, if the rains arrive late or are weaker than normal, farmers may delay planting, reduce acreage or switch away from water-intensive crops. "Southeast Asia's agricultural sector is exceptionally vulnerable to a new El Nino shock, given that its two primary commodities, rice and palm oil, are highly concentrated and uniquely sensitive to climate anomalies," Jason Lee, chair of the Global Heat Health Information Network's Southeast Asia Hub, told DW. "This extreme exposure means that what begins as a localized, farm-level shock can rapidly spill over into a broader, systemic food-price and inflation crisis across the region." Rice, palm oil and the inflation risk For Southeast Asian nations, rice crops are the biggest political risk. It is the region's staple food, closely tied to rural livelihoods and likely to trigger public anger if its prices rise.
UN predicts record-breaking heat To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Rice is likely to be the most affected staple crop due to reduced rainfall and increased heat stress, Paul Teng, a visiting senior fellow in the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute's Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme, told DW. "In the rain-fed rice areas, there will likely be higher incidence of localized droughts and in the irrigated rice areas there will likely be water stress due to lower reservoir and irrigation levels," Teng said, noting that the most vulnerable countries are Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Cambodia. The region could see a 2%–8% reduction in rice output compared with a normal year, with larger local losses in drought-prone areas, he added. Palm oil is the other major concern, especially in Indonesia and Malaysia, which together account for around 85% of the world's supply. "Palm oil is sensitive to the expected temperature rises, but unlike rice, the impacts may be felt 6–12 months later from reduced fresh fruit bunch formation and oil extraction rates," Teng said. Fertilizer and gas costs have risen sharply due to the ongoing war in Iran, and an extreme El Nino would drive prices even higher, analysts warn. This has also already led to higher food prices across the region. Markets often react not only to shortages, but also to fear of shortages, pushing prices up before harvest losses are fully known, Lee noted. "This leaves central banks on high alert, forcing them to maintain elevated interest rates to combat sticky, food-driven inflation at the exact moment that regional businesses face higher borrowing costs and government budgets are already strained by needed subsidies and soaring energy bills," he added.
The BriefWire