Trump Calls It A Peace Deal. So Why Does Iran Look Like The Bigger Winner? | Explained
Trump Calls It A Peace Deal. So Why Does Iran Look Like The Bigger Winner? | Explained Written By, Last Updated: June 15, 2026, 13:40
Trump Calls It A Peace Deal. So Why Does Iran Look Like The Bigger Winner? | Explained Written By, Last Updated: June 15, 2026, 13:40 IST After more than 100 days of war, the proposed US-Iran peace deal has raised a key question: did Tehran gain more than Washington and Israel? Rapid Read A woman walks past an anti-American mural on the wall of the former US Embassy, now a museum, in Tehran on June 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi) When the United States and Israel launched the first strikes on Iran on February 28, the assumption was their combined military strength would bulldoze Tehran into a weaker negotiating position. And for a while, the plan worked. But a 100 days later, as Washington and Tehran move towards signing a peace agreement, a growing number of analysts are asking: did the war end up strengthening Iran’s hand instead? The answer is complicated. Iran suffered significant military losses. Its nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow were damaged. Its senior commanders are dead and the country’s economy remains severely strained. But the agreement announced on Monday suggests that Tehran may have achieved something many thought was impossible at the start of the conflict: it survived the combined pressure of the US and Israel without abandoning its core positions, while extracting economic and diplomatic concessions that were not on the table before the war. What The Proposed Deal Appears To Offer Iran Although neither US nor Iran – Israel is not a signatory to the agreement — has released the full text, reports from international media indicate that the draft memorandum of understanding would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, end the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, provide sanctions relief and unlock billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets. It would also launch a 60-day negotiation process on Iran’s nuclear programme rather than force immediate concessions. Iran would also pause expansion of its nuclear activities but retain the basic status of its programme while broader negotiations continue.
Questions surrounding Tehran’s enriched uranium stockpile, verification mechanisms and the future of its nuclear infrastructure have been left for later talks. ALSO READ | ‘Netanyahu Standing Firm…’: Israel Ready To Defy US Pressure Over Lebanon After Iran Deal That is a far cry from the maximalist goals voiced by some Israeli and American officials when the conflict began. The War’s Original Objectives Remain Largely Unresolved When the US-Israel military campaign started, the stated goal was to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions and reduce the alleged threat posed by its missile programme. Yet the latest agreement does not appear to settle any of those issues. According to an analysis in The Week, the agreement deliberately postpones the most contentious questions, including Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, ballistic missile programme and support for regional groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. Instead, those issues are now the problem of future negotiations and negotiators. That has prompted criticism from both US Democrats and Israeli commentators, who argue that the war’s central objectives remain unmet despite months of fighting. How Iran Created Leverage Despite Military Setbacks One reason Iran managed to avoid a more adverse deal was its ability to hold the world’s energy supply hostage. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the conflict. The prolonged disruption to shipping created pressure not just on Washington and Tehran, but on energy-importing economies around the world, including India. ALSO READ | One Deal, Two Versions: Where The US And Iran Differ On Their Peace Agreement Reopening the strait became one of the central pillars of the negotiations, alongside sanctions relief and access to frozen Iranian assets. Analysts say this was one of Iran’s key wartime achievements. While US strikes damaged its nuclear facilities and disrupted parts of Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure, Iran retained the ability to threaten shipping through Hormuz. Those capabilities blunted Washington’s leverage and strengthened Tehran’s position.
The BriefWire