Nifty, Sensex to rally more on Monday? Iran peace deal among 5 factors to dictate Dalal Street this week

Published 14 June 2026 · finance

The Indian stock market staged a sharp rebound on Friday, with the Sensex and Nifty surging nearly 2% each, as hopes of a US-Iran peace

The Indian stock market staged a sharp rebound on Friday, with the Sensex and Nifty surging nearly 2% each, as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal, easing crude oil prices and improving global sentiment boosted investor confidence.The rally added nearly Rs 10 lakh crore to the combined market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies, taking the total market value to around Rs 462 lakh crore. Here are 5 factors that will decide market mood.Iran deal hopesUS President Donald Trump on Thursday said the United States and Iran could sign a peace deal as early as this weekend, a development that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz for shipping. Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said, "We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran.""The strait will officially open as soon as we sign, which could be soon, very soon, maybe over the weekend in Europe," he added, noting that Vice President JD Vance could sign on behalf of the United States.When asked whether Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had approved the deal, Trump said, "I understand the answer is yes."Can oil prices extend slideOil prices fell to a three-month low on Friday after Iranian state media reported that a draft memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States includes a commitment by Washington to ease oil sanctions and a pledge by Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.According to Iran's Mehr News Agency, the 14-point document states that final negotiations will begin only after half of Iran's frozen assets are released, US oil sanctions are suspended and the naval blockade is lifted.Will rupee strengthen more?The Indian rupee strengthened by 60 paise to 95.25 against the US dollar in early trade.

"Going ahead, crude oil movement will remain the key driver for the currency, along with capital flows and global risk sentiment."USD/INR witnessed a volatile week, trading within a broad Rs 94.90-Rs 95.75 range before settling near Rs 95.10. The pair closed near the lower end of its ascending trendline channel, indicating a modest strengthening of the rupee during the week. Immediate resistance stands at Rs 95.30-Rs 95.40. A sustained move above this level could ease near-term bearish pressure and push prices back towards Rs 95.60-Rs 95.80. On the downside, the previous reversal low near Rs 94.75-Rs 94.65 remains a key level to watch. A confirmed break below could drag the pair towards Rs 94.40, with a stronger base seen near Rs 94.20.The near-term bias remains cautious, driven by a fragile geopolitical backdrop influencing dollar demand alongside the strength of domestic policy support.Global supportUS stocks advanced on Friday as SpaceX's strong market debut lifted sentiment, while investors remained hopeful about a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to close at 7,431.46, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.31% to finish at 25,888.84. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 353.51 points, or 0.7%, to settle at 51,202.26.Elon Musk's rocket maker debuted on the Nasdaq at $150 per share under the ticker SPCX, above its IPO price of $135.