Biggest upset in World Cup may be coming
Brazil football team with star player Neymar are expected to breeze through the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. But according to a
Brazil football team with star player Neymar are expected to breeze through the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. But according to a forecasting model that correctly picked the last three champions, the five-time winners could suffer one of the biggest upsets the tournament has ever seen.The prediction comes from Joachim Klement, strategist at Panmure Liberum, whose World Cup model correctly identified the winners of the 2014, 2018 and 2022 tournaments. Klement originally developed the model to demonstrate how difficult forecasting can be and how much luck influences football outcomes. Yet the model's remarkable record has made its latest forecast difficult to ignore.And this time, the model delivers bad news for Brazil.Also Read: This strategist who doesn't go wrong makes a shocking prediction for FIFA World Cup 2026Brazil expected to cruise through Group C in FIFA World Cup 2026According to the forecast, Brazil are overwhelming favourites to advance from Group C. The model gives them a 99% chance of finishing in the top two places and reaching the knockout rounds. Morocco are projected to join them in progressing from the group, while Scotland and Haiti are expected to miss out.Brazil's route through the group stage appears relatively straightforward. The five-time world champions remain one of the most respected teams in international football and continue to attract strong backing from fans and betting markets alike.Klement points out that prediction markets currently give Brazil around a 9% chance of winning the tournament.
That places them among the leading contenders, although behind Spain, France, England and Argentina in the rankings.Yet despite Brazil's status as one of football's traditional powerhouses, the model predicts their campaign will come to a dramatic and unexpected halt.Also Read: Brazil's hunt for World Cup No. 6 leaves coach under more pressure than the nation's presidentJapan forecast to pull off one of biggest shocks in FIFA World Cup 2026The forecast sees Brazil facing Japan in the newly expanded Round of 32.That is where the tournament takes a stunning turn.Klement predicts that Japan will eliminate Brazil in what he describes as "one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history".The prediction goes against conventional wisdom. Many football followers still believe that South American teams enjoy a special advantage when World Cups are held in the Americas. Klement specifically challenges that view, arguing that such assumptions can often lead analysts astray.To support the forecast, he points to Japan's growing record against elite opponents. Japan stunned Germany at the 2022 World Cup and followed that up with several notable results. The report highlights Japan's 3-2 victory over Brazil in October 2025, as well as recent 1-0 wins over Scotland and England. It also points out that Japan defeated England despite being without key players Ko Itakura, Takefusa Kubo and Wataru Endo.Those performances have convinced the model that Japan are capable of producing an upset that would send shockwaves through world football.A painful reminder of Brazil's long wait for FIFA World Cup gloryFor Brazil supporters, such an outcome would be particularly painful.Brazil remain the most successful team in World Cup history, having won the trophy five times.
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