Swiss to vote on whether to cap population at 10 million
On June 14, Swiss voters will be able to decide on a far-right initiative to curb future immigration. What will it mean for the economy
On June 14, Swiss voters will be able to decide on a far-right initiative to curb future immigration. What will it mean for the economy — and the country's European neighbors — if they approve the proposal? Swiss voters will soon have the chance to have their say in a referendum on the Civilian Service Act, asking whether the number of people moving from the army to civilian service should be reduced, as well as on a far-right initiative to cap the population at 10 million dubbed the "No to 10 million" initiative. The question at the heart of the populist initiative, to be voted upon on June 14, is how many people should live in Switzerland. The far-right Swiss People's Party (SVP), which proposed it, wants to ensure that the permanent population does not exceed 10 million after 2050. A similar initiative by the SVP failed 12 years ago. Economic interests at stake The issue is not only about nationalism, psychology and xenophobia but also about economic interests. From an economic perspective, this matter is far from simple, said Tobias Heidland from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). He told DW that a "struggle would arise over what kind of immigration to still allow" if voters decided to limit immigration. He predicted that there would be widespread dissatisfaction in the business community, as well as in wider society, as "many highly qualified people would decide against migrating to Switzerland, which would probably be seen as "deterring the wrong ones.'" Sabine Zinn from the Berlin-based German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) told DW that the question of whether immigration restrictions made sense could not be "answered with a simple yes or no." The real challenge, she said, lay in distinguishing between "migration of refugees on humanitarian grounds and labor migration based on economic necessity." For Zinn, there are several economic reasons against imposing a general cap on immigration: "Many European countries, including Germany and Switzerland, face significant demographic challenges," she explained, pointing out that there were increasingly fewer people in the workforce who were responsible for funding social security systems.
There was already a lack of qualified applications on the labor market, she added. "A blanket cap on immigration is likely to exacerbate these problems." Wido Geis-Thöne, an expert on migration at the German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne, pointed out that although the shortage of skilled workers would be a concern, the problem might lie more with "unskilled labor." He explained that many EU nationals worked in the hotel, restaurant and construction sectors and if they were no longer able to enter the country, this could cause problems. They are "important for Switzerland," he said, pointing out that the country, "after all, is a tourist destination." A "10 million limit would almost certainly cause significant harm," he said. The tourism industry would likely suffer if there was a cap on migration Image: Frischknecht Patrick/prisma/picture alliance Could other countries, such as Germany, follow suit? Financial news outlet Bloomberg said that for the SVP, the referendum represented "a milestone in two longstanding priorities: limiting ties with the EU and tightening immigration controls." In a report, Bloomberg cited the Swiss think tank Demografik, which has calculated that if the SVP's proposals are adopted, economic output could be reduced by up to 12% by the end of the century. The healthcare sector, the hospitality industry, the IT sector and the construction industry would be particularly affected by labor shortages. The central question now, it said, was whether Swiss voters would be swayed by the risks of long-term economic consequences.
The BriefWire