How can El Niño impact grocery bills for Indians?

Published 13 June 2026 · india

What is El Niño? Live Events Why is IMD concerned this year? How does El Niño affect India's monsoon? What could change in India's weather

What is El Niño? Live Events Why is IMD concerned this year? How does El Niño affect India's monsoon? What could change in India's weather this summer? How El Nino might burn your pockets? Tomatoes, onions and potatoes may become more expensive. Pulses such as tur dal and moong dal may see price increases. Edible oils can become costlier if oilseed production falls. Rice and sugar prices may face upward pressure if production is affected. Does El Niño always mean a bad monsoon? as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Addas a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now! (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that El Niño conditions are now active over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen during the monsoon season. This comes just as the southwest monsoon begins its journey across India. The development has sparked concerns because El Niño has historically been linked to weaker monsoon rains, higher temperatures and stress on agriculture in India.So what exactly is El Niño, and does it mean India is heading for a drought-like monsoon? Here's what you need to know.El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal.

When temperatures go up, these warmer waters alter global wind patterns and atmospheric circulation, influencing weather conditions around the world.When that engine heats up abnormally, weather patterns across continents can shift, affecting rainfall, temperatures and storms thousands of kilometres away.The opposite phase is called La Niña, which features cooler Pacific waters and often supports stronger monsoon activity in India.According to IMD, both the ocean and atmosphere are now showing clear El Niño signals, indicating that the phenomenon has officially developed. Forecast models suggest it is likely to strengthen further during the June-to-September southwest monsoon season."The atmosphere has responded to the warming sea surface temperatures, and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system now exhibits characteristics consistent with El Nino conditions," the weather agency said.El Nino is known to have a warming effect over the planet and might bring less rainfall in India. The IMD has already projected that India could receive below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with El Niño being one of the key reasons behind that outlook.The Indian monsoon depends on a delicate balance between ocean temperatures, atmospheric pressure and wind circulation.During El Niño years, that balance can get disrupted. Warmer Pacific waters tend to weaken the large-scale circulation patterns that help draw moisture-laden winds toward the Indian subcontinent. As a result, rainfall may become less abundant or unevenly distributed.Historically, several major drought years in India have coincided with strong El Niño events, including 2002, 2009 and 2015.One of the most immediate effects of El Niño is an increase in temperatures.