El Niño Is Here. Does It Always Mean Drought For India? Here’s What Past Data Shows

Published 12 June 2026 · india

El Niño Is Here. Does It Always Mean Drought For India? Here’s What Past Data Shows Published By, Last Updated: June 12, 2026, 14:07 IST

El Niño Is Here. Does It Always Mean Drought For India? Here’s What Past Data Shows Published By, Last Updated: June 12, 2026, 14:07 IST India has seen several El Niño years before, but not all of them followed the same monsoon script. Rapid Read El Nino occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean warm unusually (PTI) El Niño, the Pacific Ocean warming pattern known for disrupting weather across the world, has arrived at a time when the planet is already unusually hot. Global forecasters have warned that the event could become one of the strongest in recorded history, raising concerns over extreme heat, floods, droughts and weak monsoon conditions in vulnerable regions. The US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially confirmed the formation of El Niño. According to NOAA, there is a 63 per cent chance that the event will become so intense by late fall and early winter that it “would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950". The World Meteorological Organisation has said there is an 80 per cent chance of the world experiencing El Niño conditions in July-August 2026, rising to 90 per cent by November. For India, the warning is especially significant. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a below-average monsoon across the country this year. Since the southwest monsoon is central to agriculture, water storage, rural incomes and food prices, even a moderate rainfall deficit can have wide economic consequences. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the developing event as an “urgent climate warning". “The science is clear: El Niño is arriving at our doorstep in the coming months with 90 per cent certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is," Guterres said in a statement on June 3. In a separate video message, he said: “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world." What Is El Niño?

El Niño is part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a climate phenomenon in which trade winds and sea-surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean shift from their normal pattern. Usually, trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific, pushing warm surface waters towards Asia and Australia. During El Niño, these winds weaken or change, allowing unusually warm waters to build up in the central and eastern Pacific. This changes the movement of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, affecting rainfall and temperatures in several regions. The term El Niño, meaning “little boy" in Spanish, originated from Peruvian fishermen who noticed warm waters in the Pacific around December. Over time, scientists found that this warming pattern could influence weather far beyond South America. In North and South America, especially near the Pacific coast, El Niño can trigger extreme rainfall, snow and storms. In Asia, including India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Australia, El Niño conditions are typically linked to weaker monsoons and, in some years, drought. Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier told AP that the warm, deep waters of an El Niño bring “a lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world." She said that, especially in the Pacific, “it can get dire very quickly." Why India Is Vulnerable India’s biggest worry during an El Niño year is the southwest monsoon, which brings most of the country’s annual rainfall and supports the kharif crop season. In a normal monsoon year, rain-bearing winds from the Indian Ocean move towards the Indian subcontinent and bring rainfall across large parts of the country. But during El Niño, unusual warming in the Pacific Ocean can disturb this pattern. The result is that monsoon winds over India may weaken, leading to lower rainfall or longer dry spells. However, El Niño does not automatically mean drought for India.