Iran: From clerical rule to military capture

Published 11 June 2026 · tech

The Iran war and the country's change of leadership are reshaping Iran's power structure. Analysts say the Revolutionary Guard is emerging as the dominant force

The Iran war and the country's change of leadership are reshaping Iran's power structure. Analysts say the Revolutionary Guard is emerging as the dominant force, weakening the system's clerical foundations. Iran analysts are debating whether the Islamic Republic is on the verge of a historic transition — from a theocratic system to one in which the military holds real power. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — a force originally established in 1979 to protect the Islamic revolution — has morphed from a military faction into a vast economic and political empire. The IRGC, through affiliated companies, commands roughly half of Iran's oil wealth, according to estimates, as well as sprawling interests in construction, telecommunications, and export industries worth billions of dollars. The transformation has been decades in the making — but the Iran war has dramatically accelerated it. "Although, in the context of the state of emergency that has taken shape since the outbreak of the war on February 28, 2026, the country's strategic and operational command has officially been handed over to war headquarters and top generals," said Faraj Sarkohi, a Germany-based political analyst and author. "This by no means signifies a transformation of the system into a pure military dictatorship," Sarkohi told DW. "This is because one of the main foundations of this rule remains the institution of Velayat-e Faqih, the official Islamic doctrine, and the clergy as the representative of that doctrine." Mojtaba's appointment: the official end of religious legitimacy? Following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in an Israeli attack on February 28, Iran's Assembly of Experts, reportedly under pressure from the Revolutionary Guard, appointed his son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader. Iran elects Khamenei's son as supreme leader To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Analysts say the decision reflected a shift in power towards security institutions.

Damon Golriz, a researcher with The Hague Institute for Geopolitics, sees Mojtaba's appointment as a turning point in Iran's history. "The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader cements the reality that in the Islamic Republic political calculation and the balance of power — not religious legitimacy — have become the decisive factor," he said. Mojtaba Khamenei is a 56-year-old cleric who has not held senior religious office or played a visible role in Iran's electoral politics. "His appointment is based less on qualification and far more on his dense network of relationships and internal power structures," Golriz said. "He may sit in the leader's chair, but at the same time he is hollowing out the office from within. He is a leader in title, but in reality a purely decorative figure." The IRGC's barracks power network Mojtaba Khamenei's ties to the security establishment date back to the war years, when he joined the Revolutionary Guard in 1987 and served during the Iran-Iraq War in the Habib Ibn Mazahir Battalion under the IRGC's 27th Mohammad Rasoul Ollah Division. This battalion became the birthplace of a network that, over the following decades, formed the hard core of the IRGC's intelligence and leadership elite. This barracks-based network has, over the past two decades, functioned as an extended security arm of the Office of the Supreme Leader. Golriz noted that since 2009, Mojtaba has played a direct role in coordinating commanders and mobilizing the Basij militia, a paramilitary group within the Revolutionary Guards that was deployed to suppress popular protests. "He assumed direct leadership of the Basij organization during the suppression of the 2009 protests and relocated security meetings to the Office of the Supreme Leader, thereby establishing key institutional links with the centers that today constitute the overwhelmingly dominant actors of power," Golriz added. Golriz said that while the official executive power rests with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, "the real power lies in the hands of Mojtaba Khamenei and a network of a new generation of military and security figures." "Beneath this clerical facade, the center of power has shifted from the theological faculties to the barracks.