Why alcohol sales are set to slow globally over next 10 years but grow in India
For years, the alcohol industry could count on a simple formula for growth: more people, more consumers and more sales. That equation is beginning to
For years, the alcohol industry could count on a simple formula for growth: more people, more consumers and more sales. That equation is beginning to change. A new report from market research firm IWSR suggests that global alcohol consumption is set to decline over the next decade, even as the world's adult population continues to grow. For drinks companies, it signals a major shift in consumer behaviour and a challenge that could reshape the industry for years to come, reported Reuters. THE INDUSTRY'S GROWTH ENGINE IS SLOWING The global alcohol business has already been showing signs of strain. Several major drinks companies have reported weaker demand since 2023. Sales have slowed across categories, while stock market valuations of leading alcohol firms have come under pressure. According to IWSR's first-ever 10-year forecast covering 160 markets, global alcohol consumption volumes are expected to keep falling until at least 2031. Even by 2035, total consumption is forecast to remain 1% below current levels despite a 9% increase in the number of people legally allowed to drink worldwide. In simple terms, there may be more adults, but they will be drinking less alcohol.
WHY ARE CONSUMERS CUTTING BACK? Industry experts point to several reasons behind the shift. The first is the rising cost of living. As household budgets come under pressure, many consumers are reducing discretionary spending, including spending on alcohol. Health and wellness concerns are also playing a growing role. More people are paying attention to fitness, calorie intake and long-term health, prompting some to drink less frequently. Another emerging factor is the growing popularity of weight-loss drugs. Industry observers believe these medicines could influence drinking habits among some users by reducing cravings and changing consumption patterns. Marten Lodewijks, President and Managing Director of IWSR, said changing consumer preferences have become one of the biggest challenges facing alcohol producers today. According to him, companies can no longer depend on strategies that worked in the past and must adapt to evolving tastes. TRADITIONAL DRINKS ARE LOSING THEIR DOMINANCE The report suggests that beer, wine and spirits will all see lower consumption volumes by 2035. Meanwhile, newer products such as ready-to-drink beverages and canned cocktails are expected to gain market share.
This does not necessarily mean consumers are giving up alcohol altogether. Rather, they are becoming more selective about what they drink and how often they drink it. For producers, that means innovation could become just as important as scale. BIG MARKETS ARE DRINKING LESS The decline is expected to be most visible in some of the world's largest alcohol markets. China and the United States, currently the two biggest drinking markets globally, are forecast to see alcohol consumption fall by more than 18% by 2035. Other mature markets, including Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom, are also expected to record significant declines. These trends are forcing global drinks companies to rethink where future growth will come from. INDIA EMERGES AS A KEY GROWTH MARKET While many traditional markets are slowing, India is moving in the opposite direction. IWSR forecasts that alcohol consumption in India will rise by 38% over the next decade. By 2032, India is expected to overtake the United States and become the world's second-largest alcohol market, behind only China. The growth is being driven by rising incomes, urbanisation and a large young adult population entering the consumer market.
The BriefWire