Historic milestone: South Korean women could become the first people in history to live beyond 90 on average
The Lancet study behind South Korea’s longevity milestone Why South Korean women are living longer A remarkable rise in just one generation Breaking the 90-year
The Lancet study behind South Korea’s longevity milestone Why South Korean women are living longer A remarkable rise in just one generation Breaking the 90-year barrier Is South Korea still on track? For decades, scientists believed that an average life expectancy of 90 years was a distant milestone that no country would reach anytime soon. Then a landmark study published in The Lancet challenged that assumption. Researchers projected that South Korean women born in 2030 could live an average of 90.8 years, making them the first population in recorded history expected to surpass the 90-year barrier. The finding not only placed South Korea ahead of traditional longevity leaders such as Japan but also suggested that improvements in healthcare, nutrition and public health could push human lifespan further than many experts once thought possible.The prediction comes from a major study published in The Lancet in 2017 by an international team led by Professor Majid Ezzati of Imperial College London. The researchers analysed future life expectancy across 35 industrialised countries using a sophisticated forecasting approach known as a Bayesian model ensemble, which combined the outputs of 21 separate statistical models.Their results suggested that South Korean women born in 2030 would have an average life expectancy of approximately 90.8 years.According to the study, there was a 57% probability that the country's female life expectancy would exceed the 90-year threshold by 2030.
The researchers also found a 90% probability that South Korean women would surpass 86.7 years, which at the time represented the highest female life expectancy ever recorded anywhere in the world.The researchers did not attribute South Korea's longevity gains to any single factor. Instead, they identified a combination of social, economic and healthcare improvements that have transformed the country's public health landscape over the past several decades.Professor Ezzati and his colleagues pointed to improvements in childhood nutrition, broad access to healthcare, lower rates of obesity compared with many Western nations, lower average blood pressure levels and rapid adoption of medical technologies. Together, these factors have reduced mortality across multiple age groups and helped more people survive into old age.One of South Korea's biggest advantages has been its Health Insurance Service, which provides near-universal healthcare coverage. Unlike some countries where health outcomes vary sharply by income, many of South Korea's health improvements have been distributed relatively evenly across society, allowing larger portions of the population to benefit.South Korea's transformation has been extraordinarily rapid by historical standards.In the mid-1980s, female life expectancy in South Korea was around 73 years. By 2010, it had climbed above 84 years. The Lancet projection suggested another substantial increase by 2030, potentially adding more than six additional years within two decades.Researchers attribute the earlier gains largely to reductions in infant mortality, infectious diseases and deaths linked to poor nutrition.
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