Has Putin Already Won? Why The Ukraine War Could Be Entering Its Most Dangerous Phase

Published 10 June 2026 · world

Has Putin Already Won? Why The Ukraine War Could Be Entering Its Most Dangerous Phase Written By, Last Updated: June 10, 2026, 16:04 IST Rather

Has Putin Already Won? Why The Ukraine War Could Be Entering Its Most Dangerous Phase Written By, Last Updated: June 10, 2026, 16:04 IST Rather than conquering all of Ukraine, Russia focused on consolidating control over occupied territories and Ukraine's capacity to fight. Over years, Kremlin bet on Western fatigue Rapid Read One reason the conflict appears so difficult to resolve is that Russia’s objectives have evolved. (AFP File Photo) More than four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war has entered a strange phase. Ukraine remains independent, its government is intact, while Russian forces have suffered enormous military losses. Yet despite these setbacks, has Vladimir Putin already won the war’s most important battle, that is, convincing the world that Ukraine may never recover all of its territory? Kyiv recently demonstrated its ability to strike strategic military assets far from the front lines, reminding the world that it remains capable of surprising Russia. Retired US generals recently told CBS News that they believe Ukraine now has the upper hand in the war with Russia. However, these tactical successes have also highlighted a deeper dilemma — winning battles and winning wars are not always the same thing. The War That Refuses To End When Russian troops crossed into Ukraine in February 2022, many expected the conflict to end quickly. Moscow believed Kyiv would fall within days. Instead, the war has become Europe’s largest military conflict since World War II. Ukraine’s resistance shattered Russia’s initial plans. Ukrainian forces pushed Russian troops away from Kyiv, reclaimed territory in Kharkiv and Kherson, and inflicted heavy losses on the Russian military. Western governments supplied billions of dollars in military aid, advanced weapons systems and financial assistance. Yet despite years of fighting, neither side has achieved a decisive breakthrough. Russia continues to occupy roughly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. The front lines have shifted only marginally over the past two years despite intense fighting and enormous casualties. How Putin Changed The Goalposts One reason the conflict appears so difficult to resolve is that Russia’s objectives have evolved. At the beginning of the invasion, Putin appeared to seek regime change in Kyiv and the political subjugation of Ukraine.

Those ambitions clearly failed. Ukraine survived, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remained in power, and NATO emerged more united than many expected. But instead of abandoning the war, the Kremlin adjusted its goals. Rather than conquering all of Ukraine, Russia increasingly focused on consolidating control over occupied territories and exhausting Ukraine’s capacity to fight. Over time, the Kremlin also began betting on another factor: Western fatigue. If Russia can hold territory long enough, maintain military pressure and outlast political support for Ukraine in Europe and the US, it could secure many of the gains it sought through negotiation rather than outright military victory. Why Trump’s Return Changes The Equation The return of Donald Trump to the White House in January 2025 has added another layer of uncertainty. Throughout the conflict, Trump repeatedly argued that the war should end through negotiations and questioned the long-term sustainability of massive US aid packages. While his administration has not abandoned Ukraine, it has signalled greater interest in pushing both sides towards a settlement. This creates a difficult challenge for Kyiv. Ukraine’s position has always been based on the principle that its internationally recognised borders must be restored. However, the longer the war continues, the stronger the pressure becomes for a negotiated compromise. Recent Ukrainian strikes inside Russia have strengthened Kyiv’s argument that it remains capable of imposing costs on Moscow. Some analysts argue these operations provide Trump with leverage by demonstrating that Putin cannot simply wait for Ukraine to collapse. Others believe that battlefield momentum alone may not be enough to alter the fundamental political reality that many Western governments increasingly want the war to end. Can Ukraine Still Win? If victory means preserving Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and democratic system, then Ukraine has already achieved something remarkable. Russia failed to eliminate Ukraine as a state. A recent open letter by Zelenskyy to Putin, in which he called for direct talks to end the war, stated “when Russia grows tired, changes come". Analysts argue that many of the territorial gains claimed by the Kremlin are often little more than temporary advances by small assault units. While Russian troops may briefly enter new areas, they frequently struggle to hold them and are later pushed back by Ukrainian forces.