The most powerful El Nino in a century could be on its way
Warnings of a strong El Nino weather phenomenon this year suggest the coming months could be characterized by drought, flooding and extreme heat. Can the
Warnings of a strong El Nino weather phenomenon this year suggest the coming months could be characterized by drought, flooding and extreme heat. Can the world prepare? A potentially powerful El Nino is developing in the Pacific Ocean and could reshape weather patterns around the world in the coming weeks. Forecasters warn this could be among the strongest on record. There’s "real potential for the strongest El Nino event in 140 years," according to Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the State University of New York at Albany. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects El Nino conditions to emerge soon and continue at least into winter. Depending on its strength and duration, the climate phenomenon could trigger drought, flooding, heat waves and disruptions to food and water supplies in multiple regions. "The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is," United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. "El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world." What is El Nino? El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern that occurs every two to seven years. It begins when trade winds over the tropical Pacific weaken, allowing warm water to accumulate in the Pacific Ocean. Although the area of warming is about the size of the continental United States and only takes place in one region, its effects can be felt around the world. "By changing the tropical atmosphere, you can then change the atmosphere further away across the mid-latitudes, which is why we care about it so much, even though we're thousands and thousands of miles away potentially," NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Director Gavin Schmidt told DW.
That sets off a global chain reaction, with El Nino being "the first atmospheric domino to fall," he said. What impacts are expected? Those reactions vary dramatically from region to region. In some places, that means an increased risk of drought; in others, flooding. Parts of Central America, Asia, Africa and Australia often become hotter and drier during El Nino years. The resulting water shortages can affect agriculture, hydropower generation and drinking water supplies. In Honduras, authorities estimate that around 75 municipalities could face severe drought conditions. Tegucigalpa, the country's capital, has already declared a water emergency. In other parts of the world, the risks are reversed. Along parts of South America's Pacific coast, El Nino can bring torrential rainfall and destructive flooding. The consequences can persist long after the rain stops or reservoirs run dry. El Nino has been associated with crop failures and economic losses potentially running into the trillions. During the 2015-2016 El Nino, poor harvests left millions of people around the world in need of food assistance. Wildfires are also a growing concern. Scientists warn that El Nino is likely to increase the risk of severe heat and drought conditions that fuel fires across Australia, Canada, the United States and the Amazon rainforest. A water level marker stands in a dried-out reservoir in Bogota, Colombia, in 2024, as El Nino drove water levels critically low Image: Fernando Vergara/picture alliance/dpa Storms, reefs and the Atlantic hurricane season El Nino plays a big role in tropical storm activity.
Scientists expect this year's Atlantic hurricane season to be less active than average. El Nino conditions tend to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, which makes it more difficult for storms to form and intensify. "The waters are beginning to warm in the central and eastern tropical Pacific," said atmospheric scientist Brian Tang. "Usually when we have an El Nino developing, especially during hurricane season, that suppresses clouds, thunderstorms, precipitation and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic." But fewer storms do not necessarily mean less danger. Once a storm reaches hurricane strength, it becomes harder to suppress, meaning those that do develop could still cause catastrophic damage. El Nino threatens to make the world even hotter To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video The picture is different in the Pacific, where El Nino tends to have the opposite effect, fueling more and stronger storms. Marine ecosystems are also under pressure. Warmer ocean temperatures associated with El Nino can trigger coral bleaching and add stress to reefs that are already weakened by repeated heat stress linked to climate change. Agriculture is affected as well. In India, mango growers have reported sharply reduced harvests after unusual weather conditions disrupted flowering and fruit development, affecting both supply and income for producers. How does climate change affect El Nino? Scientists say there is no clear evidence that climate change is making El Nino itself stronger.
But climate change can amplify its impacts. "Climate change can make a severe El Nino drought into an extreme El Nino drought," said Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist at the Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, increasing the risk of extreme rainfall and flooding. Higher temperatures can also intensify drought by drying soils more quickly. Because global temperatures are already near record highs, El Nino events can more easily push global temperatures into new record territory. Torrential rains and flash floods compounded by El Nino killed more than 120 people during the wet season in Kenya in 2024 Image: LUIS TATO/AFP Can countries prepare? One advantage of El Nino is that it develops gradually and can be monitored months in advance. Scientists can track ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions, giving governments and communities time to prepare. Forecasts can help authorities protect harvests, strengthen flood defenses and improve early warning systems. "We know where it will be unusually wet or dry," McPhaden said. "There's plenty of time through these long-range weather forecasts to develop mitigation strategies to avoid some of the worst impacts." Edited by: Sarah Steffen
The BriefWire