India’s Fertility Rate Falls Below Replacement For First Time: What Is Driving The Decline?

Published 8 June 2026 · local

India’s Fertility Rate Falls Below Replacement For First Time: What Is Driving The Decline? Published By, Last Updated: June 08, 2026, 11:04 IST India’s TFR

India’s Fertility Rate Falls Below Replacement For First Time: What Is Driving The Decline? Published By, Last Updated: June 08, 2026, 11:04 IST India’s TFR stood at 1.9 in 2024, below the replacement level of 2.1, but the national average hides a sharp regional divide: Bihar remains at 2.9 while Delhi has fallen to 1.2. Rapid Read The national TFR stood at 1.9 in 2024, below the replacement benchmark of 2.1. (Image credits: Pexels) India’s Total Fertility Rate, or TFR, has fallen below the replacement level for the first time, according to the Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2024 released by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner under the Union Ministry of Home Affairs. The national TFR stood at 1.9 in 2024, below the replacement benchmark of 2.1. In simple terms, this means the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime has now fallen below the level needed for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next. The shift does not mean India’s population has started declining. India had a population of around 360 million in 1950, when the average woman gave birth to six children. Today, India’s population is around 1.45 billion. The country overtook China in 2023 to become the world’s most populous nation and continues to grow. But the fertility data shows that the pace of future population growth is slowing. If fertility remains below the replacement level for a long period, population growth gradually decelerates and eventually begins to decline. What Is Total Fertility Rate? Total Fertility Rate is the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years. A TFR of 2.1 is generally treated as the replacement level, meaning the level at which a population broadly replaces itself over time, without migration. India’s TFR has declined sharply over five decades. According to the SRS Statistical Report 2024, it fell from 5.2 during 1971-1981 to 4.5, then from 3.6 in 1991 to 1.9 in 2024.

Which States Have The Highest Fertility Rates? Bihar recorded the highest fertility rate in the country at 2.9. It was followed by Uttar Pradesh at 2.6, Madhya Pradesh at 2.4 and Rajasthan at 2.3. These are the only major states that remain above the replacement level of 2.1. The data shows that India’s fertility decline is not uniform. Large parts of the country are already far below replacement level, while some northern and central states continue to have relatively higher fertility. Bihar also recorded the slowest decline among large states over the last decade. Its fertility rate fell by 9.4 per cent between 2012-14 and 2022-24. Chhattisgarh followed with an 11.5 per cent decline, while Himachal Pradesh and Punjab saw fertility fall by 11.8 per cent each. The General Fertility Rate, which measures births per 1,000 women aged 15-49, also shows Bihar’s distinct position. Bihar had the highest GFR at 96 births per 1,000 women, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 83 and Rajasthan at 82.7. Which States And UTs Have The Lowest Fertility Rates? Delhi recorded the lowest TFR in the country at 1.2. To put that in perspective, this is lower than Finland’s fertility rate of 1.3, Finnish broadcasting firm Yle quoted Statistics Finland as saying in a report. Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal each recorded a TFR of 1.3. Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Maharashtra and Punjab stood at 1.4, while Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana each reported a fertility rate of 1.5. Delhi also saw the sharpest decline in fertility over the last decade, with a 29.4 per cent reduction between 2012-14 and 2022-24. Gujarat followed with a 25 per cent decline, while Tamil Nadu recorded a 23.5 per cent fall. This means that the country’s capital, several southern states, some western states and parts of the east are already deep into a low-fertility phase. What Does The Rural-Urban Divide Show? India’s fertility decline is sharper in cities than in villages.